Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen on PressBoxOnline.com, sorted through some Orioles and Dodgers futures bets ahead of the 2025 season.
This has been edited for clarity. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of mid-February.
PressBox: Do you like to make futures bets early in spring training or later on?
Spencer Schultz: I like to look early because the value is going to change. The media can impact value. Especially for awards futures, things can be switched up a little bit. It’s just trying to measure who maybe falls through the cracks a little bit. The media cycle picks up a bit during camp. So then I think movement starts to occur, more betting starts to occur. People’s minds get into it. The earlier the better for me, but injuries can occur. The Orioles showed up for pitchers and catchers last year and Kyle Bradish was out with an elbow injury. You’re like, “Oh my gosh, that’s terrible.” Definitely early, definitely throughout, but I start looking at it right before they report, before that movement might occur.
PB: Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is +700 to win American League MVP. His over-under home run total is 30.5. Do you like either of those?
SS: Over 30.5 home runs. The power is there. We saw it. If I’m Gunnar Henderson, I’m looking at the length of the season. It’s the white whale of the Orioles right now: How do you finish strong? Gunnar did the Home Run Derby, did the All-Star Game, did all of that and obviously had a power outage in the second half as a kid going through the All-Star cycle and the media cycle, everything he did with all the accolades and the acclaim that he got. I think hammer the 30.5.
Injury is the only possible way that doesn’t hit. I think that is an amazing bet that makes no sense to me, still. I get the power outage being a little discouraging. Slumps happen. But being a lefty in Camden Yards, the power is prolific. It’s consistent. Over two different seasons we’ve seen some really impressive stretches from him. To hit 30-plus home runs, he doesn’t even need to have as big of a splash as he did in the spring months into the summer last year. It doesn’t need to be like that for him to easily cross 30. He just needs to be 80 percent of that.
MVP, I’m a little questionable on it. The way Bobby Witt Jr. performed at shortstop, I think it makes a pretty big impact on the way people want to vote. I think they kind of hurt each other in a way. If they’re both having great seasons, they’re always going to butt heads. We saw that start to transpire last year. … Defense needs to be a calling card of a shortstop. That stretch of errors and mistakes and mental lapses that occurred, you’re not going to win an MVP that way playing shortstop in Major League Baseball against Bobby Witt, who isn’t doing that. I am maybe not as bullish on MVP.
PB: The Orioles’ over-under win total is 88.5. They are +260 to win the AL East. What do you think about those futures?
SS: Last year around this time, I thought they wouldn’t be that 100-win team that they were the year prior and they would have a tough stretch. Considering how difficult they made life on themselves last year, I think they overperformed just in terms of wins and losses. Ninety-one, considering that stretch, was a lot. I do think we saw them play about as poorly as they can as a defense. I think their bullpen came apart at the seams. I think those two simple factors probably make their floor 90 wins. They have moved into an echelon of teams where it’s not can you make the postseason — it’s can you have success in the postseason? I think they win 90-plus games.
I like their win total. I do not like them to win the AL East. I think that the AL East is going to be more competitive this year. There are stable farm systems with three of their AL East opponents. The Yankees lost Juan Soto but added a good bit, stabilized their bullpen. Devin Williams is a huge addition. … I think the AL East is just a tough division. I think the moves other teams made make it a little tougher, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 90 games and not win the division. If that’s something you can parlay, you’d probably get really good odds on it — win over 88.5 games and no to winning the division.
PB: The Dodgers’ over-under win total is 104.5. Can they hit the over?
SS: It is the highest differential between first and second I’ve ever seen. The Yankees, Braves are between 91.5 and 93.5. I do believe the Dodgers hit the over. They are so deep in their staff, they are so deep in their bullpen and have the star power. The disparity is drastic, I believe, and is getting to a point of maybe changing the way baseball works. It is as high of a differential as I’ve ever seen. I think they clear 110. I don’t think that’s impractical at all because of the depth, especially in their rotation.
PB: Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani is +155 to win National League MVP. Is that worth a bet?
SS: If he gets put on the IL at any point for 15 days I think his value might get higher. I think he’s so prolific that he could still win an MVP even with an IL stint. I’m not attracted to it as a future. I just don’t like the idea of putting a couple of units down to get that value back. I’m a little bit more of a chaser in that sense when it comes to futures. But I do agree the value probably won’t exceed +200 unless there’s an injury or something like that.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 291: February / March 2025
Originally published Feb. 19, 2025