Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen on PressBoxOnline.com, recently chatted about betting trends throughout the NBA season, the teams capable of a deep playoff run and more.
This has been edited for clarity.
PressBox: What trends have you noticed throughout the NBA season that perhaps others haven’t picked up on?
Spencer Schultz: It feels like bench players often get really undervalued in terms of player props. Payton Pritchard has been so undervalued throughout this year consistently. I think NBA lines have been crazy overall in terms of hooks. If you think a team is going to win, it just really feels like NBA lines are on point. Teams win but don’t cover way more often than in other sports. I’m going to say parlaying who you think will win with the other team to cover, even buying points in that direction with alternate spreads, I think is a good formula. I think the NBA has been locked up by Vegas in terms of spreads overall. … If you’ve got playoff teams vying, I like trying to take your predicted winner and the other team to cover.
PB: If you were to make a futures bet ahead of the playoffs on a surprise team to win its conference, which teams would you target?
SS: The East is tough. I don’t think there’s any shot anyone wins other than the Cavs or Celtics. I don’t think there is a value bet to be made. I think you’re donating to Vegas in the East. In the West, it’s intense. You never know. The Thunder lost in the conference semifinals last year, so that’s going to live in people’s minds. It might live in the Thunder’s minds. You don’t know. The NBA is a little bit of a different beast than other sports. We watch teams grow into their success.
The Nuggets have the second-best odds in the West. I do love the Nuggets. Nikola Jokić is the best player in the world. They have experience. They have done it. They have hit big shots at the end of games. They’ve come back in the playoffs. They’ve done all of those things. I don’t like the Lakers as a Finals winner, but Luka Dončić and LeBron James are hard to bet against. I don’t like the Rockets. The NBA is so top-heavy and has been in terms of conference winners for so long. Teams other than a [Nos.] 1, 2 or 3 seeds hardly ever go to the Finals. The best value I can come up with is boring, but it’s going to be the Nuggets to win their conference and Finals.
PB: Can the Cavaliers beat the Celtics in a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference finals?
SS: I think the Cavs do have a good chance. The Cavs have outstanding on-ball defense. They’ve gone toe-to-toe with the Celtics. It’s not like the Cavs just haven’t been in the playoffs or anything, but I absolutely think that it’ll be a close series. I think the Cavaliers’ prowess in their frontcourt is going to provide some issues. Their ability to pick and pop is clean. They have star power. They have athleticism. They have depth. They have everything to be able to do it.
The Celtics have taken basketball and computed it and spit it out in a different way than we’ve ever really seen before. It started with Steph Curry and ended with the Celtics. This is as far as you can go in that direction [with 3-pointers], maybe a little tiny bit further but not much. It is boring to watch. I don’t think it’s pretty for basketball. I don’t think fans enjoy it. I think the NBA is slow to make changes to a team like this. I think the impact of them winning would be immense. I think the Cavs will win games, but it’s going to be tough. The Celtics are experienced. The Celtics are deep. The Celtics shoot the lights out. You’re going to have to play standup basketball for six-plus games if you’re the Cavaliers in that spot, but I think they can do it.
PB: Have you seen anything from the Lakers since the Luka Dončić trade that suggests they can make a real run in the playoffs?
SS: I have. I believe they’re going to be really tough to beat over the course of a series. Of course, the Thunder are the No. 1 seed and the Thunder are great. I do think that’s probably a bad matchup for them, but having two supreme vision, pass-first, dominant offensive players in Luka and LeBron is going to make it tough. I think they can give the Nuggets a really, really tough go. The Rockets don’t have a ton of experience.
I can see the Lakers giving a tough, tough run to either of those teams in the second round. I think the Thunder are a tough draw for them. If the Lakers end up as the [No.] 4 seed and have to play them in the conference semifinals, that could be tough. … They lack a presence down low, of course. They tried to make a trade after Luka to acquire that kind of shot-blocker and rim protector, didn’t quite get it. It’s tough to count those two guys out. Luka just took the Mavericks to the finals with Kyrie Irving and had that team on his back. I think it’s foolish to completely discount them.
PB: FanDuel offers odds on which team will land Cooper Flagg. What team are you thinking?
SS: The lottery is so random. I know it won’t be the Wizards. There’s no way. I was looking at the Spurs and the 76ers. I don’t know what it is. It is the lottery, the balls do float around. There are many people who buy into conspiracies with the lottery and things like that. Imagine Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama with some of the other talent they have there. Take the Spurs. Take the 76ers. I think those are two teams that could somehow end up with Cooper Flagg.
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