The first 39 games of the 2025 season have been some of the most unfun and unwatchable games the Orioles have played since the 2018 season under Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter. The last season for both ended with a staggering 47-115 record.
It’s hard to remember that in 2017, the Orioles were 22-10 through May 9. From that point on, the team fell flat on its face, finishing 75-87. The club went 53-77 in its last 130 games. That meant that between May 10, 2017, and the last day of the 2018 season, the Orioles’ winning percentage was just .342 … 100 wins and 192 losses.
From 2019-2021, nobody expected the Orioles to win and they didn’t. That didn’t happen until 59 games into that 2022 season with the Orioles sitting at 11 games under .500 after play on June 10. That wasn’t long after Adley Rutschman had made his big league debut on May 21. From June 11 on, the club posted a 59-44 record to finish above .500 for the first time since 2016. From June 11, 2022, through the end of the 2024 season, the O’s went 251-176, a winning percentage of .588.
True, the club got swept in the postseason by the Rangers in 2023 and Royals in 2024. But there was every indication that the Orioles’ immediate future as a solid contender was secure with a core of Félix Bautista, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg.
True, the club went on to lose two of the straws that really stirred the drink in the early going of 2024 in Corbin Burnes and slugger Anthony Santander. But injuries to key pitchers Zach Eflin and Rodriguez meant Orioles starting pitching sprung a huge leak to start the 2025 season. As such, the club is a disappointing 15-24 and teetering on extinction from the postseason race. Andrew Kittredge, Albert Suárez, Ramón Urías, Cowser and Westburg have also missed time.
There have been some questionable decisions made as far as replacements for free agents who left. The club brought in 41-year-old right-hander Charlie Morton, oft-injured outfielder Tyler O’Neill and backup catcher Gary Sánchez.
The offense has been anemic at best and downright hard as hell to watch. That has also played a huge part in such a slow start.
However, sometimes baseball can be broken down much simpler than that. It’s easy to look at pitching matchups, current performance trends and look at the days a team has a real chance to win games.
Eflin returned from a right lat strain on May 11 against the Angels. The right-hander allowed two runs in the first inning, then shut down the Angels for the next four innings and the Orioles got a win for the third time in four Eflin starts.
But when Eflin was out, no starter stepped up aside from 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano. Morton was the biggest culprit, posting a 10.89 ERA in five starts before moving to the bullpen. Dean Kremer was no help early, either, recording a 7.04 ERA in his first six starts.
Buck Showalter always warned reporters about evaluating prospects in March and September. That seems prescient when it comes to Cade Povich, who finished up very strong last September but has a 5.55 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 35.2 innings (seven starts) so far this year.
However, Eflin is back, Sugano has pitched well all year and Kremer has found a groove in his past two starts. There’s some reason for optimism now heading into a huge six-game homestand against the Twins and Nationals. Povich, Kremer and Sugano will start for the Orioles against the Twins, who will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack.
There is an old adage in baseball that momentum is only as good as tomorrow’s starting pitcher. Maybe the Orioles can win four of six on the homestand. Maybe.
But the type of momentum they need in a hurry is winning 15 of their next 20. As much as I believe there is talent here and the offense can pick things up, I don’t see nearly the quality of starting pitching that can fuel this Orioles team where they need to go.
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