I’m typing this as the Orioles are riding a three-game winning streak. While I think it’s unlikely, this is baseball and it’s possible that in two months we’ll look back and say that this is the moment when everything turned for this team.
If that happens, presumably Tony Mansolino will be announced at some point as the new full-time manager of the team — hopefully not before losing the first game of a doubleheader, 30-3. Oddly, the Orioles could finish well above .500 the rest of the way, not make the postseason and be in a very awkward spot. It’s possible they play well enough the rest of the way for internal and external pushes to hire Mansolino as the manager and potentially even cause some level of internal consternation if they don’t.
This is the strange reality of firing a manager before Memorial Day.
I have an opinion. It’s an opinion. It’s shared by many but it remains an opinion. My opinion is that the next manager of the Baltimore Orioles needs to be a veteran manager with experience and cache and the ability to be a bit more of a check on the power of the front office, particularly if Mike Elias remains as general manager.
My gut tells me the Orioles don’t want to move on from Elias. The question of whether Elias deserves the opportunity to continue as GM is complicated. Trevor Rogers looked pretty good Saturday night! But on the whole, the fairest way to describe Elias’ tenure is “good at tearing down, uneven at building back up.”
If Elias stays, my belief is that the power needs to be more balanced between ownership and the front office and between the front office and on-field leadership. I worry that a first-time manager is less inclined to present pushback to other decision-makers within the organization. (I know former Orioles utility man extraordinaire Ryan Flaherty is a popular choice among many.)
You’ve likely seen and heard the relevant names that seem to fit the bill. Former big league managers Joe Girardi, David Ross and Skip Schumaker seem to fit the bill and then there’s … well … the other guy you know really well.
I actually think a reunion with Buck Showalter would make sense for the Orioles. I don’t think it will happen, but I think it would make sense. I think the Orioles need a manager who is a culture fit and whose experience and professional accomplishments allow him to carry the type of “big stick” to challenge both the roster and the front office.
Showalter fits the profile. If the Orioles decided to give him a call, I think it would make sense. But I don’t think they will. Dan Duquette suggested after their departures that Showalter was reluctant to incorporate a more analytical approach to management. Showalter has acknowledged on multiple occasions that he understands the game has changed and that data plays a far more significant role in how the game works now. His desire for analytics and intuition to work more hand in hand is … seemingly desirable! But if Elias is making the decisions, I don’t think Showalter would be his ideal choice.
But perhaps the Orioles shouldn’t go with Elias’ ideal choice. They need to mix things up! (Well, I think they do, anyway.) I don’t know if Elias agrees. I don’t know if ownership agrees. If Elias doesn’t, he’s not going to pick someone he thinks would be more of a check on him. If ownership doesn’t, they’re not going to push him to!
And if ownership does but Elias doesn’t, then the GM might not be interested in sticking around long-term anyway. But you’d like to think that a respected baseball person could find a way to work more collaboratively with one of the most respected managers of the last four decades — with a little help from the wildly successful business leaders who are feeling their way into sports ownership.
But just because Showalter makes sense doesn’t mean that it needs to be Showalter. I do think the profile is important, even though some would say “just hire a good manager.” If another veteran manager is a better fit than Showalter, that’s OK! We love Buck Showalter in this town. But there’s no guaranteeing that a second act will go as well as the first (see Weaver, Earl). It’s OK if someone else has the same ability to create a check for the front office and is just a better fit.
I’d argue that whoever the person is should be hired sooner than later. The team might want to hire a manager in the offseason so it can pull from the biggest pool of candidates possible, including managers who might part ways with their current clubs and coaches who can interview after the season (like Flaherty, for example).
However, going through the rest of this year, with a core of talented young players moving closer to free agency, with a lame-duck interim manager, is not desirable. This shouldn’t be another rebuild! The Orioles need to get this in gear again. The next manager needs to start setting the tone as soon as possible.
Perhaps the ship won’t prove to be as rudderless as it has felt to this point. But there’s no reason to waste a year of Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg being together without the team reaching the postseason AND without setting a foundation with a new manager.
The hire should be made soon. It’s a clunky way to do things, but having to fire the manager before Memorial Day is the definition of clunky. The team must adapt from there. Part of the reason the Orioles are in this position is because they didn’t show urgency in constructing the roster last offseason. It’s time to start showing some. There are great candidates available. Get one in place and start figuring out how this all gets fixed by 2026.
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