After a home sweep of the Angels this past weekend, the Orioles are now 15-12 since Tony Mansolino took over as manager following Brandon Hyde’s firing when they were 15-28. If we really dive in on what these numbers mean, we could comfortably say … basically nothing.
Perhaps Hyde’s firing provided a small proverbial spark. It has certainly helped that the Orioles have gotten healthier in the past month. They were never truly as bad as their record ever indicated. But with respect to Mansolino himself, there’s also nothing on the whole (not yet anyway) that truly suggests he has radically changed the culture of the franchise or anything along those lines.
And that’s relevant in this particular context, as one of the questions we asked in the immediacy of the change is whether Mansolino would be considered as Hyde’s long-term replacement. The answer was always yes, of course. It would be absurd to think that an interim manager would have absolutely no chance of becoming the guy. But Mansolino in particular, given his lack of experience and overall pedigree, felt like a fairly significant long shot to be able to nail down the job in a moment when cache seems relevant to the search.
That doesn’t change simply because Mansolino has won 15 of his first 27 games. It’s not just that if the season ended today the Orioles would need to hire their next skipper. It’s that I still believe they’d be best served to hire their next manager before the season is over.
That part has always been practically unlikely, however. And as the Orioles wake up the morning after Father’s Day, they’re just six games out of a playoff spot. If that number continues to dwindle, the conversation about what to do at the deadline will get louder and the conversation about Mansolino’s future will get louder as well.
So when does the Mansolino part of the conversation become relevant?
For me, it’s honestly only if he actually guides the Orioles into the postseason. And even then, it still might not be automatic for me.
I think the moment is too important to give anyone an unfair “leg up” in the hiring process. The Orioles need to show that from ownership to the front office to on-field leadership, everyone is on the same page in terms of recognizing that this is the moment to try to win a World Series. Everyone needs to be ready to work collaboratively to do just that.
Perhaps Mansolino does have a unique ability to gel with this group of players. But he should be measured as a candidate based on his qualifications against other potential candidates, like current managerial free agents Skip Schumaker, David Ross and anyone who might be fired from his current job at the end of the year.
Simply putting together a solid record in an interim capacity shouldn’t be a cop-out to prioritize continuity over making the best possible hire. With a 36-34 record, the Mariners currently hold the final American League playoff spot. If they remain on that pace, they’ll finish 83-79.
If the Orioles were to get to 83 wins and steal a wild-card spot, that would mean Mansolino would have gone 68-51 during his interim stint, which would admittedly be impressive. But context would still matter! If the Orioles were to again be swept out of their playoff series, or even if they were to lose two out of three in the wild-card round, how much better overall would you feel about where they are as a franchise?
Mansolino would certainly have earned the right to be legitimately considered for the role. A thorough evaluation of the job he had done would be needed, including an investigation of which players he had most directly worked with and how impactful that work was. But it shouldn’t be enough to blindly say, “Well, he got them into the playoffs after a bad start, he has to get the full-time job.”
And absolutely nothing short of that should guarantee retention, either. Getting to 80 wins overall would mean the Orioles went 65-54 under Mansolino, which would be very good! But it still wouldn’t warrant a guarantee of the full-time job, just consideration.
I still don’t think the Orioles have the pitching to make a playoff run legitimate. But I recognize how perfectly mid the AL playoff picture is. One of the teams ahead of the Orioles (the Red Sox) is already selling. Making a run is absolutely possible. But short of a deep playoff run, it shouldn’t guarantee anyone the job. This hire needs to be about winning a World Series. The next manager needs to be the best possible candidate to do just that.
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