The next time we see or hear from the Baltimore Ravens (formally), they’ll be getting into training camp. When they do, expectations will once again be sky high.
At the moment, they’re tied with the Buffalo Bills for the best odds to win Super Bowl LX, at least according to FanDuel. You don’t even have to be noted rebel alliance commander Admiral Ackbar to recognize “It’s a trap!”
That’s not because the Ravens don’t deserve to be one of the favorites. It’s because the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles play in a conference where there are literally no other top Super Bowl contenders and therefore they should be the favorites.
But back to the Ravens. Expectations are deservedly outlandish. They already had a very balanced roster even before they added veteran cornerback Jaire Alexander last week. The two-time All-Pro is a significant injury risk (he has missed 20 games over the last two years), but when he was on the field last year, he still posted a 78.3 coverage grade according to PFF, the 16th best of any cornerback in the NFL.
If he can stay healthy (and read that more like “IIIIIIIIIIFFF he can stay healthy…”), the Alexander addition could be much more than the typical depth move teams usually make this deep in the offseason. He could be a game-changer. And he joins a roster that doesn’t have a whole lot of weaknesses. The Ravens didn’t really even “need” Alexander, per se. But secondary depth was one of the few areas that we even thought could use some help.
Now there’s a small question about left guard but a common belief that someone on the roster (be it Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland or Emery Jones) will nail down the job. Although to be fair I wouldn’t be opposed to still adding a veteran free agent like Brandon Scherff. But I don’t think such an addition would be make-or-break for winning a Super Bowl. Similarly, the Ravens were reportedly interested in a reunion with veteran linebacker C.J. Mosley before he retired. I think they trust Trenton Simpson to nail down the starting job next to Roquan Smith, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they explored more depth there.
The biggest concern about the roster, by far, is special teams. Jordan Stout has been pretty disappointing during his short tenure (PFF graded him 24th among punters last year), and no matter who wins the kicking competition, it will be someone who has made as many NFL kicks as you, me and all of the members of the band Mumford & Sons.
Still, it’s a really strong roster overall.
Which is why more than a few of you have suggested they deserve to be measured by “Super Bowl or ________.” I’m purposely not saying “bust” because some of you have been more specific. The blank could be filled with “major changes” or more specifically “the coach gets fired” the way some of you are saying it. I get the concept. You make a compelling argument. If Lamar Jackson and the most important pieces on the roster stay relatively healthy, they’re good enough and deep enough that they should be judged by their postseason results.
I don’t think it’s quite as cut and dried as “win a Super Bowl or the coach has to go.” If they lose the AFC Championship Game in a Billy Cundiff-esque way (which would be believable given their kicking situation), I don’t know that John Harbaugh should pay for that.
If they lose a heartbreaking battle in the Super Bowl itself, I’m not sure the prevailing takeaway should be “well, we’ve gotta get rid of the head coach.”
But given the construct of the roster, if the key parties stay healthy, I think it’s right to suggest that if they again come up short or flat in the postseason (or unfathomably don’t make it), it’s probably time to start thinking about major changes. It’s good to keep getting yourself into position to have a chance. The Ravens value continuity, and they are regularly in the mix. But the purpose of finding value in regularly being in the mix is that at some point, you’re likely to break through.
This team needs to break through. And it should be judged that way.
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