Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen on PressBoxOnline.com, recently chatted about whether the Orioles could offer bettors opportunities in the second half, what he’s looking for when sifting through the daily board and more.
This has been edited for content and clarity.
PressBox: Could the Orioles offer solid opportunities for bettors in the second half of the season if they get healthier and begin to play better than their record suggests?
Spencer Schultz: Definitely. The Detroit Tigers last year were in a not-too-dissimilar spot from the Orioles. They possibly were going to sell Tarik Skubal ahead of the trade deadline. They don’t and they go on a run. The Orioles made a change at manager. Expectations can sometimes be a killer to fans but also to a team. Once the expectations get taken away, teams can certainly go on a run. The variability of playing every day provides a great opportunity except for the Colorado Rockies. If you bet minus-1.5 runs on whoever they’re playing, that’s a pretty good bet.
But part of it is just overall recognizing hot streaks and cold streaks. Baseball’s a streaky sport. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani can go through cold stretches. Teams can go through cold stretches, and certainly bad teams can play good baseball for a little while. That’s the beauty of the sport. … Vegas definitely accounts for it, but there are still solid opportunities. The Orioles are a good example.
PB: Should bettors simply bet on whatever team the Rockies are playing until the Rockies give them reason not to do so?
SS: Yes, I think it flatly is something you ride until [the Rockies] give you reason not to, until we see them win three out of four games or five out of eight games or something like that. They definitely are an aberration to typical baseball. When something’s cold, bet against it. When you see something is starting to pick up, bet with it. Baseball’s a streaky sport and the Rockies are on a legendarily bad cold streak.
PB: What do you look for when you’re sifting through the daily board? Pitching matchups? Who’s hot and who’s not?
SS: The thing that I’ve been picking up on this year is wind. The books do factor it in. You can Google “MLB ballpark wind factor.” There are 10 different websites that will show you … not only wind but wind direction. If the wind is blowing out of Fenway, and you see a team playing in Fenway that’s got some good righty hitters and maybe they’re facing a lefty pitcher, go crazy on that team total over, go crazy on home runs. Conversely, if the Giants are [home] and the wind is blowing in, bet the under on runs. Don’t go crazy betting on a home run hitter. Wind is something I’ve started to become privy to.
Right now the Rays are playing in that dinky little ballpark. When the summer months hit, it’s going to be pretty warm there. It’s going to be easy to hit some balls out. I like home runs in that spring training ballpark. … Who’s hot? Who’s putting the ball in play? If you check the last two weeks total for batters, I think that’s a good depiction of who’s hot and who’s cold on total bases, home runs, runs, RBIs and all those little combos you can do. I like looking at two weeks at a time to see who’s hot player-wise for props.
PB: Are you dabbling in first-five-innings bets more in 2025?
SS: The first five innings are the starters. That’s really another way to break it down. If you remove the bullpens from the game, that’s kind of what first five innings is to me. … I feel like over-under totals have been really variable this year. I’ve seen a lot more 11.5 [totals] in some games and they’ve been hitting. If you see a really high total, I do like runs in the first five innings. Sometimes it fizzles out. Sometimes the bullpen can come in and find some matchups. They’re basically anticipating the starters to get slammed. They do factor in the bullpens, but I like first five runs scored in those high total games.
PB: What futures bets do you like?
SS: I like the Cubs a lot. They should be getting healthier. I think they’re still a good value. They kind of remind me of these Orioles teams the past couple years. I think they’re in a good rhythm and should be getting a lot healthier this summer. I like them to win the NL Central. I think to win the NL is good value. The Dodgers have become a mountain, but you can still get them in a series. That’s the beauty of baseball. … The Phillies are the one team that is kind of in the Dodgers’ psyche a little bit. They do have the star power and the playoff experience. They’ve had some difficulties and some successes over the last five, ten years, but I think the Phillies are one team that can really compete. I really like the Cubs, Mets and Phillies out of the NL. I would do a double chance on the Yankees and Tigers to come out of the AL. I think they’ve got the pitching and the balance. [A double chance is] a bet on both of them — one of the two to win the AL.
Photo Credit: Luke Jackson/PressBox
Originally published June 18, 2025