The Orioles entered their final series before the All-Star break as one of the hottest teams in baseball since the start of June. They went from 15 games under .500 to only seven. A sweep of the Marlins — a realistic feat given they held the same record entering Friday — could have continued the run they were on.
Instead, they floundered. Baltimore again showcased a lack of consistency and an inability to string together multi-week success, the latest proof an 11-1 home loss on July 13. Any feeling of momentum came to an end.
“I think you combine the two days and it’s just not a good way to finish,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said.
In their most recent successful stretch, the Orioles displayed the talent that had them at an 89-win preseason projection, according to PECOTA.
Baltimore swept the Braves, Angels and Mariners. The AL West teams both sit above the Orioles in the wild-card standings. They won four of seven games against the Rays, another AL team with a better record. They took two of three from the NL East-leading Mets.
Gunnar Henderson had an .867 OPS during the stretch, more than 100 points higher than his start to the season. Ryan O’Hearn continued his All-Star hitting. Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins and Jordan Westburg all returned from injuries.
Trevor Rogers looked the part of a legitimate front-end starter. Dean Kremer and Charlie Morton both settled in on the mound. Félix Bautista showed elite form.
Despite all the positives, the inconsistencies that have been present all year have kept the Orioles from even getting close to .500.
They followed the Mariners sweep with a series loss to the Athletics, one of just two AL teams worse than them. In series losses to the Yankees and Rangers (twice), they won the first game but lost the next two. That was the case again against the Marlins.
In the series opener against the Marlins, Kremer threw seven shutout innings while the top five of Baltimore’s lineup went 10-for-19 with five RBIs in a 5-2 win. The Orioles received another strong start the next day from Rogers, but the season-long inconsistencies showed as the offense was shut out and the bullpen blew the game open. And in the finale, Kyle Stowers got revenge after being traded away last year with a three-homer day.
Baltimore enters the All-Star break at 43-52. Before the July 31 trade deadline, it’ll play Tampa Bay (three games) Cleveland (four), Colorado (three) and Toronto (four).
The Mariners currently hold the last wild card spot, 7.5 games better than the Orioles. Baltimore has to pass six teams to reach Seattle.
“Where we’re at right now and how we’ve played over the last six, seven weeks, that needs to continue and we need to give ourselves a chance here going into the end of this month,” Mansolino said.
Even if the Orioles reach .500 by the trade deadline, that may not be enough to avoid a sell-off.
Last season, the Rays sold with an above-.500 record while teams like the Cardinals and Giants — a few games over and below .500, respectively — did small moves of both buying and selling.
Seven Orioles will become free agents at the end of the season, including O’Hearn, Morton, Zach Eflin and Cedric Mullins. O’Hearn’s trade stock has never been higher. Mullins can provide a contending team defense and speed, coveted in the playoffs. Eflin and Morton have postseason experience.
Moving those pieces makes sense because of logjams at the respective positions.
The recent return of Tyler O’Neill has pushed Coby Mayo into a limited role, as he has just seven at-bats since the start of July. An O’Hearn trade would give Mayo more playing time, especially given Ryan Mountcastle’s eventual return from injury. A Mullins departure could also keep Baltimore’s outfielders from holding a spot as the designated hitter.
A number of starters could be added to the rotation in the second half of the season. Cade Povich pitched for High-A Aberdeen on July 13. Kyle Bradish will throw two innings on July 19 in Florida. Grayson Rodriguez said in June that he expects to pitch this season. Trading Eflin and Morton would open rotation spots.
The Tigers last year showed that selling doesn’t mean the season is lost. They were 52-57 on July 31 and traded Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty and Andrew Chafin at the deadline. Canha and Flaherty both had expiring contracts, while Chafin had a team option.
Detroit finished the season 34-19 to sneak into the playoffs, even winning a postseason series.
But the Orioles’ series with the Marlins epitomized the inconsistencies that plagued them the first half of the season and all but confirmed that the front office will sell at the deadline.
“It’s disappointing, wanted to win that series and go into the half on a high note,” Westburg said. “[O’Hearn] is going to go represent us in the All-Star game. The rest of us are going to have a three-day break to mentally check out, which is huge, and kind of hit a reset button hopefully coming into the second half.”
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