Fantasy football is a game where you try to minimize risk by drafting the best available players. Some are ranked too high, some are ranked too low and others are ready to become household names in fantasy football.
It is just a matter of figuring out who those players are. I’m here to help.
I will dive through some of my favorite sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2025 season. A sleeper is a player I believe is being drafted a few rounds too late. A bust is a player I believe will not live up to his ADP (average draft position). Breakout players are players I believe will outperform their ADP.
To be clear, a bust does not mean you should not draft that player at all. If the value is right, go ahead and make the pick. The same goes for a sleeper, but do not reach when better players are available. I might have to reach a bit to land a breakout player, but I’ll be thankful I did.
I had James Cook as my breakout running back last year and he finished as RB8. I also correctly picked Jared Goff to be a sleeper (QB6) and C.J. Stroud as a bust (QB18). The year prior, I listed Deshaun Watson as a bust (QB35) and Rachaad White as my breakout back (RB7). The secret is finding the right players at the right price.
I will compare my rankings to the half-point per reception expert consensus rankings (ECR) at FantasyPros. Let’s go position-by-position with sleepers, busts and breakout candidates as we inch closer to the Thursday, Sept. 4 opener.
Quarterback Sleeper: Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
FantasyPros ADP: 175 (QB26)
My Rank: 123 (QB19)
Ward is my pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year this season. The No. 1 pick is an ideal fit in Brian Callahan’s offense and the Titans have an underrated offensive line. Tennessee also plays in arguably the weakest division in the NFL. Ward is likely to go undrafted in most 12-team leagues, but I am targeting him often in Superflex leagues. If you do not land one of the elite quarterbacks early, I am comfortable taking my breakout pick below and then Ward with one of my final picks.
Quarterback Bust: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FantasyPros ADP: 69 (QB7)
My Rank: 88 (QB11)
It was not easy to choose a bust because I have most of the quarterbacks ranked similar to the consensus. Mayfield finished as QB4 last season with career highs in passing yards (4,500), touchdown passes (41) and rushing yards (378). The Buccaneers have a new offensive coordinator and the receiving group is already banged up. I am not fading Mayfield entirely. I am just not willing to take him in the seventh round.
Quarterback Breakout: Drake Maye, New England Patriots
FantasyPros ADP: 102 (QB16)
My Rank: 98 (QB14)
I have Maye ranked in the same range as most, but he’s one of the quarterbacks who can massively outperform his ADP. The Patriots had one of the weakest skill position groups in the NFL a year ago, yet Maye was still QB14 from Weeks 6-17. New England has added weapons around Maye, most notably Stefon Diggs and TreVeyon Henderson. The second-year signal-caller is not afraid to use his legs when needed, either. Maye is one of several quarterbacks with top-10 potential who I am willing to draft in the double-digit rounds.
Running Back Sleeper: Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns
FantasyPros ADP: 161 (RB56)
My Rank: 124 (RB41)
The Browns envision 2025 draft picks Quinshon Judkins and Sampson being the future of the running back position in Cleveland. Judkins’ status is still uncertain from an off-the-field standpoint, but Sampson has always been the projected third-down running back. He thrives as a pass-catcher and reminds me of early-career Austin Ekeler. Sampson is going undrafted in many leagues when he should get enough touches to be FLEX-worthy.
Running Back Bust: Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
FantasyPros ADP: 84 (RB30)
My Rank: 105 (RB36)
There is a good chance I rank Mixon even lower than this before the start of the regular season. He is battling a foot/ankle injury, and there is speculation he could miss the start of the season. Mixon finished as RB13 last season thanks to a big workload. The Texans brought in Nick Chubb in free agency and Woody Marks in the draft to lighten the load on Mixon. This has the makings of committee at a price too rich for Mixon to be drafted inside the top 100 players.
Running Back Breakout: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
FantasyPros ADP: 75 (RB27)
My Rank: 75 (RB28)
The hype is loud around Cam Skattebo, but I want the incumbent starter for the G-Men. Tracy was RB18 once taking over as the starter last year in Week 5. Skattebo will get his share of carries, but Tracy is still the lead back, and more importantly, the third-down option. The converted wide receiver has more to offer as a pass-catcher, and Russell Wilson is known to check it down often. Tracy is the quintessential example of a second-year player ready to break out.
Wide Receiver Sleeper: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
FantasyPros ADP: 70 (WR32)
My Rank: 51 (WR24)
Health will be key for Olave, who had his 2024 season cut short due to concussions. He posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons his first two years in the league and is the clear No. 1 receiver for the Saints. Many have downgraded Olave because of the Saints’ quarterback situation, but Olave should rack up another 1,000-yard campaign regardless. You can get him in the WR3 range, but he finishes as a WR2 or better.
Wide Receiver Bust: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
FantasyPros ADP: 67 (WR31)
My Rank: 110 (WR44)
Rice’s ADP is baffling considering a suspension is guaranteed at some point this year. Rice is scheduled for a disciplinary meeting on Sept. 30, so he will be eligible for the first four games. The problem is we have no idea how long any suspension will last. If he is suspended for six or eight games, you wasted a fifth-round pick on a player who will be out during the most critical weeks of the season. He will be taking up a roster spot when bye weeks are in full swing. The ADP is just too high for the uncertainty. I’m not interested in Rice until my starting roster is filled.
Wide Receiver Breakout: Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FantasyPros ADP: 95 (WR42)
My Rank: 64 (WR30)
I am expecting Egbuka’s ADP to rise in the next couple weeks. The Bucs used a first-round pick on the Ohio State product who was widely considered the most pro-ready receiver in the draft. Egbuka was already expected to take on a major role with Chris Godwin starting the season on the physically unable to perform list, but an injury to Jalen McMillan makes him even more valuable. Don’t be surprised if Egbuka is in the Offensive Rookie of the Year discussion by season’s end.
Tight End Sleeper: Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
FantasyPros ADP: 116 (TE12)
My Rank: 104 (TE12)
I have Ferguson ranked the same as the consensus, but there is a path for him to finish as a top-five tight end. Many felt Ferguson was on the verge of a breakout season last year after finishing as TE8 in 2023, but an injury to Dak Prescott derailed the Cowboys’ passing game. Ferguson was TE12 the first six weeks of the season before Prescott’s injury. He is third in the pecking order of pass-catchers, but the Cowboys will need to air it out often with a lackluster running game. I am a strong advocate for passing on tight end until the double-digit rounds where you can land someone like Ferguson.
Tight End Bust: Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
FantasyPros ADP: 133 (TE15)
My Rank: 172 (TE20)
This is not a knock on Loveland, who has the talent to make an impact in the NFL. I am avoiding Loveland and Luther Burden this year because the Bears have too many mouths to feed, including another solid tight end in Cole Kmet. Loveland is a great pick for dynasty leagues because the Bears can move on from Kmet after this season, but I am not relying on a tight end who is likely to be part of a rotation as a rookie.
Tight End Breakout: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
FantasyPros ADP: 140 (TE16)
My Rank: 121 (TE13)
I had Pitts in this exact same position last season, so I have not learned my lesson. After finishing as TE14 in 2023, the former first-round pick failed to deliver again, finishing as TE15 last year. Pitts was drafted in the middle rounds last season, but he can be had in the double-digit rounds this year. That makes him one of my favorite late-round choices. The Falcons are hopeful that Michael Penix Jr. can open up the offense and make Pitts the impact player we have all dreamed on. If this is not the year Pitts breaks out, it might never be a thing.