The odds on the series between the Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) and Toronto Blue Jays (+188) tell us that the Jays have little or no shot to beat the reigning champion Dodgers. The Jays have home-field advantage and one of the most talented hitters in the game in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who this month is earning the $500 million extension he signed in early April, but the Dodgers are still the heavy favorites.
I am not here to disagree strongly with those experts who love the Dodgers. I mean, what’s not to love? The starting rotation features two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the electric Tyler Glasnow and the one and only Shohei Ohtani.
All year, the Dodgers dealt with a funky and highly-paid bullpen that was also untrustworthy. Manager Dave Roberts and the Dodgers’ baseball minds settled on Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki as the postseason closer.
Additionally, Roberts seems to have settled on Blake Treinen as his important-outs guy at the crucial moment of a close game.
While the Dodgers’ offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders for much of the season, as soon as shortstop Mookie Betts put on his big boy pants, several others have followed. Third baseman Max Muncy — as pudgy as he looks — has some juice left, as do first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Teoscar Hernández. Up-and-coming outfielder Andy Pages has been a big help as well.
Don’t underestimate the Dodger aura. As much money as club president Andrew Friedman spends, it’s Roberts who has skillfully imbued his teams with a great culture and a firm belief in his players that they know how to win and believe they will come out on top in the end. And make no mistake on this — they are battle-tested.
So, I’ll take the Dodgers in six games … and possibly five.
But we can’t sleep on this Toronto team. The Jays are capable of springing an upset, especially if they can score an upset in Game 1, which will be played in their building.
Game 1 starter Trey Yesavage and likely Game 2 starter Kevin Gausman are dominant enough to pitch big-time games. Shane Bieber will probably get the start in Game 3 with Max Scherzer in Game 4. For my money, I’d probably start Chris Bassitt in Game 3 and Bieber in Game 4. That would leave Scherzer available for a few two-inning moments. If not him, then Bassitt will probably play that role.
Manager John Schneider comes into the deep water with a lot less confidence in his overall bullpen then he once had. Yariel Rodríguez is seemingly MIA. Hard-throwing Louis Varland has pitched in nearly every game. Closer Jeff Hoffman has had a very solid postseason after a successful but spotty regular season.
The Dodgers hit .253/.327/.441 as a team this year, scoring 825 runs, hitting 244 homers and stealing 88 bases. The Jays hit .265/.333/.427 as a team, scoring 798 runs, hitting 191 homers and stealing 77 bases.
One thing I do like about the Jays is their very balanced offensive attack. Guerrero, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement and Bo Bichette bat from the right side, while Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho hit from the left side. Bichette (knee) is expected to return for the World Series.
A $100 wager on the Jays nets you $188 in profit if Toronto wins. A $100 bet on the Dodgers nets you just $44. That makes the Dodgers unbettable for me. While the Jays’ price is tempting and a Jays win would be great for the sport, in the end this Dodgers pitching just looks way too tough to beat.