Spencer Schultz recently talked with PressBox about the over-under win totals for the Orioles and Dodgers, his sleeper picks and more.
This has been edited for clarity. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of mid-February.
PressBox: Are you thinking over or under 85.5 wins for the Orioles?
Spencer Schultz: I’m going to continue to be a pessimist. I was last year. I’m going to go under again out of overall pessimism toward the Orioles. The Orioles hit this number easily if Trevor Rogers plus Kyle Bradish equal 280 innings, something like that. I think that’s the number. I think nothing else matters as things stand. I’ll say over if [the Orioles get] 280 innings out of those two, under if they’re far off from that.
PB: There are props available on players hitting 30, 40, 50 and 60 home runs. Where does Pete Alonso settle in?
SS: If I had to put a number on it, I’d say he hits 46 home runs. I love the value on 50. I like the value on 40. I think 30 is a wash and a guarantee. I think he’s in a good spot. I think he’s happy. I think he’s in a park where he can mash, and I think he’s absolutely going to do so. It’s all we’ve seen him do. Having a little bit of a different lineup, a rejuvenated sense of him being a leader I think is really going to help him as a player. I think a big mental shift will be in place for him. He drew a lot of criticism in New York. It’s much quieter in Baltimore. I think he can be the leader that he desires to be in the Orioles’ locker room and hit dingers. That’s what they paid him to do — be a veteran presence that’s played in some playoff games and hit dingers. He’s in the park for it. I love him to go over 40 home runs.
PB: Are you thinking over or under 103.5 wins for the Dodgers?
SS: We’re selling. It’s too high. I think the Dodgers have a controlled aggression that they’re capable of in the regular season at this point. I certainly think they could win 120 games. They have the talent to win 120 games, but I think this past year showed them that they can avoid using their reserve tanks throughout the regular season and turn it on when they need [to]. Maybe that’s what pushes them this year, that they don’t want to feel the need to flirt with the wild card and they just want to separate. They continue to be aggressive with Kyle Tucker and all the moves they’ve made, but [the win total] is just so, so high. I do think the NL West is very competitive. I’m going to sell the Dodgers over 103.5 wins.
PB: Are you going with Shohei Ohtani (-135) or the field for National League MVP?
SS: I’ll go with the field. I think voter fatigue will set in. I think the spectacular nature of the Dodgers might start to widen the purview of a voter. Ohtani was the rocket ship, and it feels like the Dodgers are more of an entity now. The Dodgers have had team success. I know it’s very, very rare [for a pitcher to win MVP], but Paul Skenes has crazy long odds and I think Skenes is capable of having a really special year as he continues to work toward free agency [or] whatever the heck the Pirates are going to do. I think he’s an interesting one to watch, maybe even as an MVP. I think he’s capable of that kind of year this year. I think Skenes is gaining the star power to make it really intriguing at 30-1 or 40-1.
PB: Are there any teams you like among those not favored to win their division?
SS: I’m looking at the Royals as a team that I could see winning the AL at +1500. I was on the Royals last year, too. The White Sox I think are a little interesting. They’re 25-1 to win the division. That will be my long shot. I’m going to say the White Sox. I think they’ve been shuffling, shuffling and shuffling and acquiring, acquiring, acquiring. I think they’re a long shot to win their division. I like their win total overall. They’ve got a lot of young talent that has fizzled for a long time. I think they’ve gotten that farm system in a better spot overall. I think they’ve got a lot of young, hungry talent and they’ve made some necessary changes. I’m looking at the White Sox as a shock value, but I do also love the Royals. I think that’s an interesting division. I won’t be surprised if Framber Valdez is not good overall. I won’t be surprised if Tarik Skubal can’t keep throwing the way he has been volume-wise. I’m looking at that division as a weird one.
PB: Do you like Bobby Witt Jr. to win AL MVP (+450) with the fences moved in at Kauffman Stadium?
SS: Love it so much. I think that he has gotten star treatment from pitching and been pitched around a little bit. The pop is still there. The metrics are still there. The swing speed is still there. It’s a clean, compact, fantastic swing that Bobby Witt has. With those fences coming in, I love him to have a 40-40 season this year. You can parlay those together. I love him for MVP. I love the Royals to win the AL. He’s really settling into the age and experience level where he’s going to be in his prime this year or the next two or three years. With those fences coming in, he’s only going to do more damage.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 297: February / March 2026
Originally published Feb. 18, 2026