What is wrong with a .189/.269/.443 slash line through April 22? Aside from the fact it stinks, what’s wrong with it is that after 25 games, it belongs to one Gunnar Henderson.
There is an awful lot of runway in a 162-game season for Gunnar to become Gunnar again, but if there is no injury, which there does not appear to be, what Orioles fans are thinking is, “What is wrong with Gunnar?”
Henderson does have seven home runs and 15 RBIs. But his high-water mark came after play on April 11, when his average stood at .246. Since then, he is 6-for-44 (.136/.186/.273) with one homer and three RBIs in 10 games.
Watching Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez play four games against the Orioles last week, it came to me that maybe the problem with the Orioles’ star player is that his agent is overplaying his hand to the detriment of the player.
Ramírez, 33, signed a seven-year, $175 million extension with the Guardians in January that should keep him in Cleveland for the rest of his career. Some $70 million dollars is deferred. Cleveland is grateful that its star decided to stay, Ramírez is happy to remain a Guardian and the results speak for themselves.
This marks the second under-market deal Ramírez has signed with Cleveland; he also inked a seven-year, $141 million deal in 2022. Regardless, Ramírez once again took care of business and now just plays and produces. He doesn’t spend a second thinking about or counting the dollars he let get away.
Henderson’s agent is Scott Boras. He almost always gets his players paid way more than we think they’ll get. He always plays the long game and convinces his players to hold the line, play under the arbitration system and get what they really deserve after reaching free agency.
I am not suggesting that Henderson at his age (25 in June) should take a way-under-market-value deal the way Ramírez did in Cleveland. But what if in this unique case, Boras is putting too much pressure on his young stud?
What if what ails Henderson is the weight of carrying on his shoulders the lure of a 13-year deal worth between $550 million and $650 million that covers the 2029-2042 seasons?
Orioles owner David Rubenstein proclaimed at the news conference for Shane Baz’s extension that his Orioles are “open for business.” Well, what if they go to Boras with a unique, can’t-lose deal for his player?
What would that contract potentially look like? Let’s deep dive it. Henderson is making $8.5 million in his first year of arbitration in 2026. He has two more seasons under the arbitration system before hitting free agency. Assuming there are no changes to the arbitration system in the next collective bargaining agreement, Henderson will probably earn around $14 million in 2027 and maybe $22 million in 2028.
Suppose the Orioles put in front of Boras a three-pronged contract that would begin by paying Henderson an average of $30 million per year for five years ($150 million), wiping out his final two years of arbitration. The second tier of the contract would pay Henderson $35 million per year for three years ($105 million total) and a third tier would pay him $38 million per year for three years ($114 million total). Henderson would have an opt-out before each raise if Boras thinks the next tier doesn’t value Henderson highly enough.
That is a total of $369 million across 11 years. I’ll leave it to Rubenstein and Boras to figure out if any of the money would be deferred.
Do I expect Rubenstein and Boras to read my proposal and both say, “Hey, this is really a great idea?” I doubt it. But explain to me how this is a loser for Henderson. I think we’d all agree that Henderson, if productive, would be able to hit free agency at the age of 29 and make a good bit more than this proposal outlines.
And there is the rub for Henderson and Boras. They need to honestly answer the question, is the weight of the world too much for Gunnar Henderson?
Or would Gunnar Henderson benefit from following the example of José Ramírez and just go play ball the way we have grown to love in Birdland?
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