The Orioles recently signed Kyle Gibson to fill the role of innings-eating veteran left by Jordan Lyles, but MASN analysts Ben McDonald and Jim Palmer wonder how the rotation will be managed beyond Gibson in 2023 given the relative lack of experience the other rotation candidates have at the major league level.
Gibson, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal in early December, has thrown at least 158 innings in each of the past five full major league seasons. Beyond that, the Orioles’ rotation candidates include Kyle Bradish, Mike Baumann, DL Hall, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Grayson Rodriguez, Spenser Watkins, Tyler Wells and Bruce Zimmermann. John Means is currently working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected to rejoin the rotation at some point in the summer.
However, none of the nine who will be competing for rotation spots in spring training has thrown many innings in one season:
| Pitcher | Most MLB Innings | Most Pro Innings |
| Kyle Bradish | 117.2 (2022) | 145.1 (2022) |
| Mike Baumann | 34.1 (2022) | 130.2 (2018) |
| DL Hall | 13.2 (2022) | 94.1 (2018) |
| Dean Kremer | 125.1 (2022) | 134.1 (2022) |
| Austin Voth | 101.2 (2022) | 186.2 (2016) |
| Grayson Rodriguez | N/A | 103.0 (2021) |
| Spenser Watkins | 105.1 (2022) | 138.0 (2019) |
| Tyler Wells | 103.2 (2022) | 119.1 (2018) |
| Bruce Zimmermann | 73.2 (2022) | 140.0 (2019) |
The most intriguing name on the list is Rodriguez, who has struck out 419 hitters in 292 pro innings. Orioles GM Mike Elias has mentioned on multiple occasions that he expects Rodriguez to begin the 2023 season in the rotation. But Rodriguez was limited to just 75.2 innings in 2022 due to a right lat strain, so the Orioles still may opt to slow-play him out of camp.
The 6-foot-5, 220-pound right-hander will pitch all of next season at the age of 23. McDonald is confident in the kind of pitcher Rodriguez will become, but the analyst is preaching patience.
“All indications are that he will be a No. 1,” McDonald said on Glenn Clark Radio Dec. 6. “I fully expect Grayson Rodriguez to make the club out of spring training. I fully expect him to be in the rotation, but we’ve got to remember there’s going to be some growing pains. … Let Grayson Rodriguez get about 500 innings under his belt. Let him go out there and experience the big league level. Let him have success. Let him fail. I think you’re going to see a true No. 1 two or three years from now, but I don’t think that’s going to happen this year.”
Palmer is interested to see how the Orioles handle Rodriguez given his relatively light workload to this point.
“You think at 23 the guy has been pitching in the big leagues a couple of years but because of the pandemic and injuries and whatever, he hasn’t,” Palmer said on Facebook Live with Stan “The Fan” Charles and Ross Grimsley Nov. 28. “I’m not sure he’d even be pitching in late August or September under the fact that he just hasn’t pitched that many innings. That’s going to be the challenge for Mike Elias.”
Bradish, Kremer and Wells combined to make 67 starts for the Orioles last year. Bradish’s 111 strikeouts in 117.2 innings showed the kind of swing-and-miss stuff he possesses, while Kremer’s 3.23 ERA showed why the Orioles gave him multiple opportunities to seize a rotation spot. Bradish and Kremer shined in late-season starts against the Houston Astros, combining to allow one run and 12 hits in 33.1 innings against the future World Series champions.
Palmer was extremely impressed by the four starts Bradish and Kremer combined to make against the Astros. Kremer shut out Houston on Sept. 23, while Bradish came within one out of doing so the night before.
“They were able to minimize the amount of pitches it took them to get into the seventh and eighth innings,” Palmer said. “And that’s another thing. It just seems like they were much more aggressive early in the count, but again, getting your innings, getting experience, pitching is feel and touch. It’s a lot easier to throw 95 to 110 pitches — if they let you throw that many nowadays — if you have touch. I thought those guys made — and even Tyler Wells before he got hurt — some gigantic steps forward this year.”
Wells posted a 4.25 ERA as a starter in 2022 but flashed better than that during the season. In 13 starts from April 27 to July 3, he recorded a 2.66 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .196/.239/.327 slash line. But Wells wore down after that, pitching to a 7.39 ERA in his final seven starts and suffering an oblique strain that cost him more than a month of the season.
Wells (28 on Opening Day) is a touch older than Bradish (26) and Kremer (27), but fits in with them in terms of big league experience.
“Tyler Wells had a full year as a reliever [in 2021] and got hurt down the stretch [in 2022], so it’s still a very young pitching staff in a lot of ways,” McDonald said. “You look at the ages and you go, ‘Ah, they’re not that young,’ and that’s true. But from an experience standpoint, in being there and having done it several years for full seasons, we’re very, very young still. So there’s going to be some growing pains this year. There really are. I hope the bullpen can be as good as it was [in 2022].”
Of course, the Orioles could also shore up their rotation with a free-agent or trade acquisition, but the free-agent pitching market has been pretty well picked over at this point. Johnny Cueto, Wade Miley and Michael Wacha are among the veteran starters still available on the free-agent market. The trade market for starting pitchers has not heated up yet.
Means will be back at some point, however.
“Let’s be honest, if you’re going to get into the playoffs today, you’re looking at 88 to probably 90 wins, 91 wins. That’s what it’s going to take to be the last wild-card spot every year,” McDonald said. “That’s how competitive and how good the American League is. So how do you go about and how do you collect six more wins along the way somewhere? It’s going to be hard to do, and so I’m hoping there’s some more moves made by the Orioles.”
For more from McDonald, listen to the full interview here:
For more from Palmer, watch the full interview here.
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