Welcome to the 12th season of my MLB power rankings.
Any regular readers of my power rankings know that it’s a real joy for me and a passion of mine. I hope you’ll read them each week. I work on them all week long, charting every result on a daily basis and constructing what I feel is an accurate picture of what the MLB standings are really showing us.
As I said, this is Year 12 of portraying how the season is both playing out and how it might navigate the inevitable twists and turns. In all previous 11 seasons, there have been tough calls, some of which I have been right on and some of which I have been wrong on. I am sure that’s the way it will play out again in 2023.
However, while the first 10 teams may always be fairly easy to come up with an order that makes sense, I have never seen such narrow overall differences between the No. 11 team and the No. 23 team. It would not surprise me to see these teams this year jockey to and fro and finish 10 to 12 games apart. A bunch of them will make serious plays for wild-card positions in their respective leagues.
You’ll notice in my rankings that I am predicting a major decline for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Winners of 111 games a year ago, they let star shortstop Trea Turner leave in free agency. Ace Walker Buehler won’t be back anytime soon. Solid starter Tony Gonsolin is beginning the season on the injured list. They also declined a $16 million club option on spiritual leader Justin Turner.
In Turner’s place at third base is Max Muncy. Maybe the Dodgers are seeing something I am not seeing, but I think his play at third could be well below par. I am not picking them to make the playoffs. I think the totality of their lineup beyond Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is substandard.
One can only wonder if they are saving their chickens to make a monumental bid on free agent Shohei Ohtani next offseason.
Now, here are my power rankings, with comments on each team.
1. Atlanta Braves
2022 Record: 101-61
Manager: Brian Snitker
A battle took place for the fifth starter spot between left-handers Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster, but with Kyle Wright starting the season on the injured list, both Dodd and Shuster will break camp in the rotation. Dodd totaled 18 innings this spring, allowing four earned runs, 15 hits and four walks. He struck out 20 and posted a 1.06 WHIP. Shuster tossed 18.2 innings, allowing three earned runs, seven hits and four walks. He struck out 18 and had a 0.59 WHIP. Did you get the part of this that these guys battled for the No. 5 spot in the rotation?
2. San Diego Padres
2022 Record: 89-73
Manager: Bob Melvin
The Padres won 22 fewer games than the Dodgers in 2022. But the Padres handled the Dodgers in the playoffs, so they won’t be in awe of a suddenly fringy Dodgers club. They added two big bats in shortstop Xander Bogaerts and outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis will miss 20 more games to finish up his 80-game suspension. The combination of the Padres’ improvements and a poor offseason in LA should flip the balance of power in the NL West.
3. Houston Astros
2022 Record: 106-56
Manager: Dusty Baker
The Astros are world champions and still look like not only the best team in the AL West, but probably the entire AL. Still, José Altuve’s injury takes a big bat out of their lineup and a leader out of the clubhouse. José Abreu comes over from the White Sox at just the right time. If they can withstand the loss of ace Justin Verlander, the Astros will be in the mix all season.
4. New York Mets
2022 Record: 101-61
Manager: Buck Showalter
Owner Steve Cohen has lots and lots of money and isn’t shy about spending it on his baseball team, but he must be gassed at the loss of his $102 million dollar closer for the season. He also lost lefty free-agent starter José Quintana until at least June. But if there is anyone better to not mope about all the bad that has happened and think of solutions, it’s Buck Showalter. And we know if his club is in it come the trade deadline, Cohen can take on any contract.
5. New York Yankees
2022 Record: 99-63
Manager: Aaron Boone
The Yankees did what they had to do in holding onto Aaron Judge while spending to get the best free-agent arm on the market in left-hander Carlos Rodón. However, Rodón (forearm strain) and Luis Severino (lat strain) will both begin the season on the injured list. Still, if Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Rodón and Severino pitch at an elite level for most of the season, the Yankees will be dangerous.
6. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 Record: 93-69
Manager: Oliver Marmol
It seemed as if players respected and played hard for rookie manager Oliver Marmol last season. He’ll grow into the role much more in 2023. The best news is that right-hander Jack Flaherty has been able to toe the rubber five times so far this spring after being limited to 36 innings last year with shoulder issues. If the ace is back, this rotation looks real solid. The Cards always have a crop of youngsters ready to make their mark.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
2022 Record: 92-70
Manager: John Schneider
GM Ross Atkins and his boss Mark Shapiro have gotten the Rogers Corporation to continue to open up the coffers. Atkins has done a smart job of adding three regular left-handed bats. Outfielders Daulton Varsho and Kevin Keirmeier and DH Brandon Belt really balance out what was a way-too-right-handed lineup. The Jays have also added key arms in starter Chris Bassitt and reliever Eric Swanson. If it all works out, this is a very dangerous team.
8. Seattle Mariners
2022 Record: 90-72
Manager: Scott Servais
On paper, it still looks like the Mariners are still looking up at the Astros. But Luis Castillo heads a formidable rotation that also includes 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and stud right-handers George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Look for bullpen arm Andrés Muñoz to be a breakout star this season.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
2022 Record: 87-75
Manager: Rob Thomson
The World Series runner-up squad got massively better by adding Trea Turner, though it’s a shame Bryce Harper will miss substantial time this season due to Tommy John surgery. Starter Ranger Suárez and uber-prospect Andrew Painter are also hurt right now. If not for the Harper injury here, I might have had three NL East teams in my top five.
10. Cleveland Guardians
2022 Record: 92-70
Manager: Terry Francona
The Guardians were at the top of the AL Central heap last year, and it looks like they are probably the best team again in the division. Shane Bieber is a bona fide ace and is backed up by Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, though McKenzie was removed from his final spring training start after one inning with right arm tightness. As usual, the organization is stacked with pitching prospects. Ownership OK’d a solid free-agent addition in 1B/DH Josh Bell.
11. Tampa Bay Rays
2022 Record: 86-76
Manager: Kevin Cash
I’m still not a huge fan of the player-by-player upsides in the Rays’ daily lineup. But even with Tyler Glasnow out until at least May 1 with an oblique issue, Cash has quite a quartet in Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin. Josh Fleming beat out Yonny Chirinos for the No. 5 spot with Glasnow on the shelf. The Rays also have a great pitching prospect in Taj Bradley. Kevin Cash has a deep buzzsaw-like conveyor belt of fireballers in the ‘pen led by Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks.
12. Minnesota Twins
2022 Record: 78-84
Manager: Rocco Baldelli
The Twins were a major disappointment in 2022, as injuries and poor performances ran through the lineup and starting rotation. Byron Buxton will serve as primary DH early in the season to lessen his chance of injury, and he’ll also steal very few bases. Without Buxton in the field early on, the Twins swooped in and traded for a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in Michael A. Taylor. He took a circuitous route, but shortstop Carlos Correa is back. Third baseman José Miranda looks like he is on the verge of being an impact bat. I get the relationship between Twins GM (and former Rangers executive) Thad Levine and Joey Gallo, but if his head isn’t on straight, Gallo could be deadweight in the lineup. The pitching staff has a chance to be very solid from top to bottom.
13. Baltimore Orioles
2022 Record: 83-79
Manager: Brandon Hyde
I know being in Baltimore I’ll be accused of looking at the Local 9 with rose-colored glasses. Every team has ifs attached to a prediction, but the Orioles’ key still seems to be pitching coach Chris Holt. If he gets steady work and even small improvements from top four starters Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish, the Orioles could be a surprise contender — and not just for the last wild card in the AL. On the offensive side of things, the club got big camps out of first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and left fielder Austin Hays. This is a very strong defensive club, especially up the middle with Adley Rutschman, Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins.
14. Chicago White Sox
2022 Record: 81-81
Manager: Pedro Grifol
Nobody was a bigger fan of Tony La Russa than I was from the early ’80s until he retired after the 2011 season. But owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s wacky decision against the wishes of any of his baseball executives to bring La Russa back after an 11-year retirement was just an awful move. The Sox will benefit greatly from clearer communication, but they can’t be taken too seriously as a contender — too much uncertainty at every turn.
15. Boston Red Sox
2022 Record: 78-84
Manager: Alex Cora
Look, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom is one of the many disciples of the Theo Epstein way of running a ballclub. He’s just a lot more frugal than his predecessor, Dave Dombrowski. He has worked like a world class chef, tossing in a little dash of Justin Turner, a smattering of Adam Duvall and a big splash of star Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Bloom also placed lots of emphasis on improving the bullpen by bringing in Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin and making the rotation more competent by adding two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber. Still, the combination of not going hard after Xander Bogaerts and losing Trevor Story to an elbow injury makes the Sox a lesser team.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
2022 Record: 111-51
Manager: Dave Roberts
I almost have to pinch myself that I am picking a team that won 111 games in the 2022 regular season to not even finish in the top 15 and certainly not contend in any meaningful way for a championship. But in the past several years, the Dodgers have let Manny Machado, Corey Seager and Trea Turner walk away from the team in free agency. They also made no real attempt to keep Justin Turner. On the pitching side, the Dodgers start the 2023 season knowing Walker Buehler is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery and Tony Gonsolin will begin the year on the injured list with a sprained ankle. They also let Tyler Anderson walk after a wonderful 2022. It seems like the calculation is to save bucks to make a huge play for Shohei Ohtani and others next offseason. This team also won’t play very good defense. No experienced closer, either.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
2022 Record: 86-76
Manager: Craig Counsell
This is a very smart organization, but the Brewers seemed to outsmart themselves in beating star pitcher Corbin Burnes in arbitration. Maybe the bruised feelings can be repaired in time, but the team will pay him $10.1 million instead of the $10.75 million he was asking for. At the end of the day, the Brewers will hope Brian Anderson, Owen Miller and Tyler Naquin can lift the offense.
18. Los Angeles Angels
2022 Record: 73-89
Manager: Phil Nevin
I liked the job Phil Nevin did after taking over for Joe Madden, who always seemed miscast as head of the Angels. I like the starting pitching a lot. The acquisition of Carlos Estévez from the Rockies helps the back end. If Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe and Luis Rengifo stay healthy, the Angels may get closer to the Astros and Mariners. And don’t look now, but the Rangers are creeping up.
19. Texas Rangers
2022 Record: 68-94
Manager: Bruce Bochy
During the 2021-22 offseason, the Rangers spent lavishly on Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. This past offseason, new GM Chris Young was given the go-ahead to spend lavishly on pitching and inked Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. If anyone can get this team headed the right direction, it’s future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
2022 Record: 74-88
Manager: Torey Lovullo
Catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Corbin Carroll are the new kids on the block, and the D-backs are hoping they can help turn around this team. But while Zac Gallen is a rising star, the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Torey Lovullo never seems to be on the hot seat, and that may say as much as anything about what the expectations really are.
21. Chicago Cubs
2022 Record: 74-88
Manager: David Ross
A weak division should give the Cubs a chance for a feel-better season, though it might be a bit of a mirage. The new additions for 2023 include outfielder Cody Bellinger, shortstop Dansby Swanson, catcher Tucker Barnhart, corner bats Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, starting pitcher Jameson Taillon and relievers Michael Fulmer, Brad Boxberger and Julian Merryweather. David Ross will have to earn his keep to jockey this team to a .500-or-better season.
22. Miami Marlins
2022 Record: 69-93
Manager: Skip Schumaker
GM Kim Ng got a chance to leave her stamp on the Marlins with her first managerial hire, and it’ll be interesting to see if she hired someone who can be a bit of a difference-maker in the dugout. Aside from a potentially exciting rotation, I am not sure how the Marlins claw their way any closer to being a .500 team. Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo are outright worth the price of admission. Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers are both more than serviceable. No. 5 starter Edward Cabrera looks the part of someone who can mature into a piece. The acquisition of Luis Arráez may help jump-start the offense, but unless Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García really earn their keep, the Marlins will tread more water.
23. San Francisco Giants
2022 Record: 81-81
Manager: Gabe Kapler
Well respected baseball operations head Farhan Zaidi really wanted to make a splash and thought he had a real shot at Aaron Judge. He got fooled more than slightly, as Judge returned to the Big Apple. Then he pivoted to Carlos Correa, who failed a physical with San Francisco as part of his journey back to the Twins. What was left on the vine? Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger and a couple middling starting pitchers in Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. The best thing that could happen to this team is catcher Joey Bart really grabbing stardom by the throat and Conforto coming all the way back. They look like a team that’ll struggle to score.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
2022 Record: 62-100
Manager: Derek Shelton
The lineup card that Derek Shelton will write out on a day-to-day basis looks like it has real ballplayers from 1-6 in freakish shortstop Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi and Ke’Bryan Hayes. But after that, there isn’t anything to write home about, and even McCutchen and Santana are well past their primes. The good news is the farm system is improving under GM Ben Cherington. Better days may not be that far away.
25. Kansas City Royals
2022 Record: 65-97
Manager: Matt Quatraro
Bobby Witt Jr. is a stud and his keystone partner Michael Massey looks to be a significant offensive weapon. A year ago, it looked like Nick Pratto was the “next thing” at first base. Now he’s at Triple-A and now it looks as if Vinnie Pasquantino has taken that job. The Royals still have franchise icon Salvador Perez, who will now probably play about 100 games behind the plate and DH some with young MJ Melendez catching a bunch and playing some outfield. Franmil Reyes joins his third team in 12 months as he tries to get back on track. The starting outfield — Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel and Nate Eaton — is an uninspiring group. Future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke is in the rotation along with star-in-the-making Brady Singer and ex-Oriole Jordan Lyles. Overall, tough to be excited here.
26. Detroit Tigers
2022 Record: 66-96
Manager: A.J. Hinch
2022 was a major downer for a team that thought it had turned the corner back to relevance in 2021. Injuries to Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull and Casey Mize along with Eduardo Rodriguez going MIA made the rotation pretty awful. The offense wasn’t much better. In comes new head of baseball operations Scott Harris and he’s trying some things that he feels can expedite the Tigers’ path back to square one.
27. Colorado Rockies
2022 Record: 68-94
Manager: Bud Black
The Rockies’ two big offseason pickups were Mike Moustakas, signed to a minor league deal after Brendan Rodgers suffered a likely season-ending shoulder injury, and Jurickson Profar, the last top-50 free agent to come off the board. The Reds are responsible for all but the minimum salary on Moustakas, while Profar signed for $7.75 million on a one-year deal. That about sums up the commitment of ownership.
28. Cincinnati Reds
2022 Record: 62-100
Manager: David Bell
It’s interesting that both the Tigers and Reds have aging, once-great players in Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto who take up a large piece of payroll and suck at-bats from younger players without producing much. Not much to get excited about here. This is a poorly-run team that seems like it is going nowhere fast. It’s too bad. I think if David Bell were in charge of a team with a greater commitment to winning, he’d do well.
29. Oakland Athletics
2022 Record: 60-102
Manager: Mark Kotsay
The clock is ticking on the Athletics’ lease at RingCentral Coliseum, which ends after the 2024 season, but the A’s may end up lingering in Oakland one or two seasons after that contract expires. Man of Mystery John Fisher has never once talked to the media in Oakland since he and partner Lewis Wolff purchased the team together all the way back in 2005. Fisher bought out Wolff in 2016 and owns the A’s lock, stock and barrel. It’s pretty obvious that he’s not investing back into the club until he either gets a new stadium in the Bay Area or moves. The team is so unattractive that it’s hard to blame fans for not showing up. The A’s didn’t even draw 800,000 fans in 2022. But, in not showing up, the destiny of the A’s seems to be strongly tilting toward a move.
30. Washington Nationals
2022 Record: 55-107
Manager: Dave Martinez
It would have been hard to imagine how quickly this would all fall apart for the Nationals after their World Series victory back in 2019. One year prior, they let Bryce Harper get away without any return other than a draft pick. In rapid succession, they lost Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, Josh Bell and Juan Soto. Stephen Strasburg, the one player they invested heavily in, has pitched just a handful of innings since he starred during the ’19 playoff run. They also are paying Patrick Corbin nearly $60 million across the next two seasons. On top of all this, Ted Lerner passed away in February and the family wants to sell the team. There are some interesting pieces that came over in recent trade-deadline deals, though: catcher Keibert Ruiz, shortstop CJ Abrams, outfielders Robert Hassell and James Wood and pitchers Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore and Jarlin Susana. Ruiz, Abrams, Gray and Gore figure prominently into the team’s 2023 plans.