It’s not so much what he said.
Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins took to Twitter last week to offer some cryptic messages about his future in Baltimore. Even a third deleted tweet (“idk tho sadly” … “I don’t know, though, sadly” for those of you, unlike me, who aren’t hip and cool and on the cutting edge of internet vernacular) was relatively mild.
The guy said he wants to be in Baltimore forever and told us he loves us. That’s very sweet! What a thoughtful fella! When I heard that Dobbins’ tweets had gone viral, I thought to myself “for being so nice?”
Hullaballoo seemed unwarranted in the aftermath of Dobbins’ comments (although I’d like the record to show I’m in favor of hullaballoo in general). This is one of those classic “we’re still months away from there being an actual opponent to care about and frankly we’re kinda bored” scenarios.
Yet for as uninteresting as Dobbins’ actual tweets are, his entire situation is actually quite compelling. Clearly the tweets were a reflection of the former Ohio State star’s complicated contract situation. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract and has shown great promise amid staggered progress. He’s an undeniable talent. His 6.0 yards per attempt in 2020 led all NFL running backs and then despite clearly still not being 100 percent yet last year, his 5.7 yards per attempt would have been tied for the league lead had he finished with enough rushes to qualify.
Dobbins is a legitimate talent and at times has flirted with being truly special. But there’s also the torn ACL in 2021, the additional knee surgery in 2022 and at least some reasonable question to be asked about his lack of a second gear last season. He’s also never proven himself as a high-level pass catcher, and it’s really impossible to tell if opportunity or ability is the bigger issue. His skill set and elusiveness in space would suggest he should be really good as a pass-catcher and yet, he just hasn’t done it. It’s a damn conundrum.
And there’s also the nature of the running back position in the NFL. Currently there are 10 NFL teams slated to pay a running back at least $10 million this season. One of those is the 49ers with Christian McCaffrey, so “running back.” The other teams are the Saints (Alvin Kamara), Vikings (Dalvin Cook), Titans (Derrick Henry), Browns (Nick Chubb), Bengals (Joe Mixon), Packers (Aaron Jones), Cowboys (Tony Pollard), Raiders (Josh Jacobs) and Giants (Saquon Barkley). There are some exceptional players on that list. But if we’re being fair, how many viable Super Bowl contenders are there?
The 49ers, obviously. The Bengals, of course. The Cowboys … lol no, not the Cowboys. Where exactly we are in the whole cause/effect relationship, I’m not certain. But there’s been more than enough evidence in recent years to consider whether paying real money to a running back is the best way to go about building a Super Bowl contender.
J.K. Dobbins is tweeting like a man who wants a contract. Who can blame him? I sometimes tweet about how desperately I want Outkast to get back together to play the annual summer barbecue at my house. I think Dobbins might ultimately have better luck than I, but I’m gonna keep at it! I live on a farm, Andre! There’s lots of space! We play KanJam all day and roast a pig and you can bring your flute!
The very reasonable response to Dobbins’ (apparent) interest in a contract would be to say that the Ravens will need to see him at least return to his 2020 form, if not better, in order to feel comfortable about paying him big money. That’s not unreasonable.
But let’s flesh this out a bit more. If Dobbins has a strong season, he’s suddenly set to become a free agent. They could use the franchise tag to keep him around, particularly if they’ve definitively decided that Patrick Queen is gone after this year or at least wouldn’t be considered for the tag. But using the tag on a running back feels … kinda weird.
Which all begs the further question, does it even matter what Dobbins does this season? Is it possible that the Ravens have quietly decided that they simply can’t pay top dollar for any running back, particularly as Lamar Jackson’s cap figures grow in the coming seasons? Even if we accept that the salary cap isn’t “real,” per se, and that there’s always somewhere for teams to go to get money, budgeting has to happen. It’s not unreasonable for the Ravens, particularly with a post-Greg Roman offense, to say that running back is a position where budgeting might have to hit the tightest.
In fact, such a strategy might even be advisable.
To be clear, I’m not saying, “The Ravens have to let J.K. Dobbins walk no matter how good he is and no matter what he’s looking for.” There are many more layers to that. But the idea has to be considered.
In a perfect world, Dobbins looks like something closer to McCaffrey this season and for some reason, still wants to do a team-friendly contract at the end of the year. In a more practical world, not that exact combination of things.
It will be fascinating to see exactly which combination plays out.
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