Hi, I’m Glenn Clark and I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop.
It’s probably the virgo in me. I’m constantly thinking three steps ahead. “Sure, this is fun, but has anyone thought about what happens next?” It wouldn’t be fair to call it paranoia. But it might at least be solonoia. And it’s been popping up again a little bit in recent weeks.
In the next few weeks, we’ll find out which Baltimore Orioles will be headed to Seattle for the All-Star Game. It is commonly believed that Adley Rutschman (who leads American League catchers in voting) and closer Félix Bautista (currently third in ESPN’s AL Cy Young predictor) will be All-Stars. Despite looking slightly more human of late, Yennier Cano’s numbers have been so good that he’s likely to join them. An argument can be made for Austin Hays. Cedric Mullins would have almost certainly made the team had he not gotten hurt. But there’s another Oriole who should be given strong consideration for what would be his first career All-Star appearance.
Tyler Wells has had an incredible season.
It’s not just that he’s leading all qualified starters in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched), he’s more than a tenth of a run clear of his closest competition (Joe Ryan and Nathan Eovaldi). The .183 batting average opponents have against him this season is better than any pitcher in baseball not named Shohei Ohtani. He’s in the top five in the AL in fewest walks per nine innings as well. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. He’s already surpassed his strikeout total for the 2022 season despite pitching 22 fewer innings.
Tyler Wells very much deserves to be in the All-Star conversation.
But did anything in that paragraph particularly stand out to you? It’s all quite impressive. What stands out most to me is … that Wells is only 22 innings away from matching his total from last season. Due to injury, pandemic and a move to the bullpen, Wells’ 103.2 innings last season were the most he had pitched since 2018 (a career-high 119.1). He is averaging a little more than six innings per start this season. We’re talking about Wells being just four starts away from matching the total, likely reaching the mark before the All-Star break.
Now we can certainly expect that Wells will surpass that innings total this season. But how far beyond it he can go remains to be seen. I’ve spoken to folks around baseball whose opinions have ranged from ramping up an additional 30-60 innings. But even the most bullish suggestions would be surpassed if Wells were to pitch six innings every fifth day for the rest of the regular season. And the Orioles are hoping their season won’t end at the end of the regular season.
The rub. Therein lies it.
Much like we speculated they would have with Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles have an innings issue with Tyler Wells. So what do they do about it? I’m glad you asked because I have the perfect non-answer!
There are options but they are complicated. With two off days this week, this is on paper a perfect chance to skip Wells’ turn in the rotation (scheduled for Wednesday afternoon) in an attempt to start managing those innings. The issue is that his next start is against the Rays and if the Orioles are going to close the five-game gap with Tampa Bay, they need to handle their head-to-head opportunities. If they skipped Wells, they would have the option to start Cole Irvin on normal rest on Wednesday.
So … yeah. Probably not that. The argument against skipping starts or manipulating innings early in a season in general is that the player you’re trying to protect could potentially end up getting hurt at some point in the season anyway, which might make you feel like a bit of a silly goose because the injury would have solved your innings problem anyway.
This is the part of the column where “say the thing, Glenn!” You know why you’re here. I have to say “the answer can’t be a shutdown.” I have to defiantly remind how poisonous it would be to this fan base to be in the throes of a playoff race and suddenly be told that the team’s best pitcher simply isn’t going to pitch anymore. This is who I am. This is what I do. For good reason, of course. The relationship between team and fan is still a bit precarious. As exciting as the team has been, it still has to prove willing and capable of taking the next step toward competing for a World Series.
Oddly, shutting down Wells might be, in their minds, part of doing exactly that. As important as this season feels, we know the Orioles’ World Series chances aren’t a whole lot better than the Gemstone kids getting their sh*t together this season. (I absolutely love Steve Zahn’s character in Season 3, by the way.) The Orioles’ championship window is more likely 2024-2025 than this season and protecting Wells could be an important part of taking advantage of that window.
But, you know, that’s not something anyone is going to want to hear on Sept. 14 when we’re preparing for the O’s to play a critical four-game set against the Rays, during which the division might ultimately be decided.
I think the answer is to start thinking about being proactive. Adding some starting pitching at the deadline would go a long way toward making it easier to skip a couple Wells starts between now and the end of the year to keep the total manageable. Getting John Means back before Labor Day could help too.
But ultimately a shutdown might be unavoidable. They might need Wells to start every fifth day to keep themselves in contention long enough to make any of this matter. And if a shutdown truly is unavoidable, I suggest they pair the announcement with the announcement of the lease … or an extension for Gunnar Henderson … or all of the above.
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