The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too. I’m guilty of this myself, but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We are already at the fourth pick with a lot more fantasy analysis upcoming.
(See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick).
We’ll mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex and non-PPR draft.
Let’s get started on the latest mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 4: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 2, Pick 9: Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 3, Pick 4: Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Round 4, Pick 9: Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 5, Pick 4: Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Round 6, Pick 9: Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 7, Pick 4: James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Round 8, Pick 9: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Round 9, Pick 4: Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints
Round 10, Pick 9: Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
Round 11, Pick 4: Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins
Round 12, Pick 9: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 13, Pick 4: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Round 14, Pick 9: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Round 15, Pick 4: Denver Broncos D/ST
Round 16, Pick 9: Riley Patterson, K, Detroit Lions
Observations:
The fourth pick is where things get interesting in the first round. Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are most fantasy experts’ picks for the first overall choice. I’m satisfied with any of that trio in the first few picks. Ja’Marr Chase isn’t too far behind them. He’s been dominant since entering the league and is tied to one of the best the NFL has to offer at quarterback. Chase is entering his third year in pro ball and that’s typically when wide receivers take their play to the next level. That’s scary for a player of Chase’s caliber, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the top receiver in football by season’s end.
If you’re an avid reader, you’re tired of reading this but I cannot stress enough how important it is to play out every scenario in these mock drafts. In my first mock, I went RB-RB-WR-WR. The second mock was the opposite with WR-WR-RB-RB. My third overall draft was RB-RB-TE-WR. We are going with a different approach with this one as well.
Taking Josh Jacobs in the second round does bring about some concerns, as there are rumblings that the Raiders’ ball carrier could not only hold out training camp, but also regular-season games. With the state of the running back market, I can envision Jacobs not risking injury during the preseason, but once the games count, he’ll be back on the field to show his worth. He’s in line for another heavy workload, and the Raiders did little to give him competition after he led the league in rushing a year ago.
I went receiver-heavy in this draft with Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Christian Watson and Diontae Johnson. It wasn’t really my intent to go Hero RB, but sometimes you’ve got to let the draft dictate your decisions and all four are the top receiving options for their respective teams.
Cooper showed us last season he’s capable of being a true WR1. Ridley has been out of football for much of the past two seasons, but he looks explosive in training camp thus far. It took some time for Watson to get on the field last year, but he made an impact when healthy. Johnson was heavily targeted in the Steelers’ offense but couldn’t find the end zone. He will in this campaign. There is no doubt that this squad will be dominant at the receiver position.
We’ve got to start addressing the running back situation now as we clear the running back dead zone. James Cook is a terrific player to get in the later rounds, as he’s projected to be the starting running back for the Bills’ explosive offense. He will lose some work to Damien Harris, but Cook will make his presence felt in the passing game. The same can mostly be said for Antonio Gibson in Washington, but he’ll be second fiddle to Brian Robinson for carries.
Jamaal Williams is not like the others. He’s your traditional ground-and-pound back who will get a ton of work near the goal line. Williams will get extended opportunities in New Orleans if Alvin Kamara does face a suspension. Devin Singletary is now with the Texans, and while he has Dameon Pierce to contend with, I expect Singletary to still get meaningful action, and if something were to happen to Pierce, Singletary has shown he can handle a workload on his own. Jeff Wilson will start shooting up draft boards once the Dalvin Cook to Miami rumors simmer.
It’s about time to address the tight end and receiver positions, and this mock is a reminder why it can be beneficial to wait at both slots. Evan Engram is my favorite tight end to target in this area. His floor is a back-end TE1, but his upside is a top-five play. I want as many shares of the former first-round pick as possible. Speaking of first-rounders, Tua Tagovailoa was a QB1 when on the field. The question entering last season is if Tagovailoa has the arm strength with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his receivers. He put those doubts to rest.
Anthony Richardson is someone I’m willing to take with my final picks and hope the hype is real. He might not start right away with Gardner Minshew also on the roster, but Richardson could be a high-upside play in the second half of the season. His rushing prowess alone will make him fantasy relevant once he becomes the starter. Justin Fields showed us last season that you can be a fantasy star with less than 200 yards passing. The depth at the top of the roster allows me to take a flyer like this late in the draft.
As noted above, this team is loaded at the receiver position. I have five who would be starters for any other team and avoided the running back dead zone. By hammering the running back position in Rounds 7-11, I only need one of them to become an RB2, and even better if multiple become FLEX-worthy. Will I have tough decisions to make each week? Absolutely. I’ll leave a couple stud receivers on the bench each week, and that RB2 spot will be dicey until someone steps up.
But this mock is a perfect example why I still believe in loading up on as many backs and receivers in the first 10 rounds and then finding your tight end and quarterback. I have a ton of depth in the event of injuries and the trade ammunition to make this roster even stronger as playoffs approach. If my tight end and/or quarterback flop, there are still plenty of options on the waiver wire. The same cannot be said for running back and wide receiver. FantasyPros’ draft analyzer wasn’t a big fan of this squad, but I am.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox