Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
Sunday Picks:
Parlay: Austin Ekeler TD + Travis Etienne TD
Two of the highest red-zone volume players in the league create a parlay around +200, which feels like a mortal lock. Taking them solo to mitigate loss in addition to the parlay isn’t a bad move.
Bonus: Parlay Ekeler + Etienne + Brian Robinson + Jaylen Warren (+2000). Add or replace Devin Singletary at your own discretion.
Jaylen Warren TD and longest rush over 12.5 yards
The Steelers named Warren starter this week. Warren has been one of the most efficient ball carriers in the league in terms of rushing yards over expectation as well as missed tackles forced. Warren +300 is worthwhile. He has rattled off a 13-yard rush in four of his last five games, and Pittsburgh wants the electric back to find pay dirt in a sloppy AFC North matchup.
Chicago Bears +10.5 alternate spread
Chicago’s run defense leads the NFL in success rate allowed (24.6 percent) by a wide margin since Week 6. The Bears will be able to force the Lions into true passing downs and get off the field enough to cover 10 when the Lions work into the red zone.
DJ Moore longest reception over 21.5 yards
Moore crossed this mark in the last four games Justin Fields played. Fields extends plays, allowing the savvy and explosive veteran receiver to work himself open and hurt defenses after the catch.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 84.5 receiving yards
Brown has crossed the century mark in four straight games. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson gets ARSB full speed at the snap, utilizing fast motion to maximize the receiver’s ability to run through the catch point and work after the catch. Vegas hasn’t placed ARSB in the elite tier yet despite his incredible production thus far.
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 alternate spread
Vegas is begging for a trap by making the Browns 2.5-point favorites. The Browns’ defense will likely put Kenny Pickett into a fiery hellscape, but Pittsburgh’s defense against a rookie quarterback in his second start isn’t a recipe for success. If the Browns can get it done, they do it by a field goal or so. Bonus juice: Browns first-half ML, Steelers full-time ML is around +900 currently.
Arizona Cardinals-Houston Texans under 50.5 alternate spread
I can’t put my finger on why I like this under. My gut tells me the Cardinals want to sustain long drives and keep C.J. Stroud on the bench. Noah Brown and Nico Collins are banged up, which pushes Devin Singletary into another big workload. Each team wants to control clock, which limits possessions.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Please play responsibly. For help visit helpmygamblingproblem.org or call 1-800-GAMBLER.