Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen on PressBoxOnline.com, recently shared his tips for betting on the NBA and NHL playoffs.
PressBox: What NBA futures bets do you like ahead of the playoffs?
Spencer Schultz: It’s tough if you don’t do the little things and have depth in order to survive in the playoffs. I think the Nuggets are truly a beast to try to overwhelm in a series. There’s a reason why they were able to go win last year. They can win it a thousand ways. … They’re not the odds-on favorite, but I think they should be over Boston. The Western Conference is probably a little bit tougher, but I just think that experience for the Nuggets should provide value.
Eastern Conference winner, [the Celtics are] pretty enticing at this point. I think they’re going to cruise through the first round, so the odds are not exactly in your favor, but it’s hard to imagine this Doc Rivers-coached Bucks team getting through them outside of an injury or inconsistency and things of that nature. It’s a pretty weak Eastern Conference, so it’s pretty easy to see a straight path for Boston.
I do want to fade the Thunder. They’re a really exciting young team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is my pick for MVP this year, but they get dominated on the boards. I think they’ll struggle against the intensity in the playoffs and not having a ton of experience there trying to get off so many of those mid-range jumpers with SGA and Jaylin Williams and trying to play that kind of inefficient style. And it’s a team that hasn’t been able to take control of the boards. That definitely [bears watching] in the second round if they’re able to get there.
PB: What NHL futures bets do you like ahead of the playoffs?
SS: Look at the Carolina Hurricanes, who are the odds-on favorite, typically around +600, +650 [to win the Stanley Cup]. I know they’ve been a favorite before. They have blown it in the playoffs, but they went out at the deadline and got two proven playoff-experience players. … I think they really are matchup-proof. I think they are good odds. Definitely the Rangers coming out of the East as well — the Rangers have been really strong in overtime games and close games and have a really fluid attack that should overwhelm teams.
In terms of series, I think that Boston has a really strong shot against a lower seed and being able to overwhelm them. I think they are one of the more matchup-proof teams. I do like them as well out of the Eastern Conference. I don’t see them being an early exit this year ultimately. … The two teams I’m looking at for upset potential in their first series would probably be Edmonton and [Toronto]. I think that both of them kind of have a top-heavy approach in a way and don’t quite have the depth necessary to be able to overwhelm teams … and to be able to navigate a
seven-game series and be able to go get it done.
PB: What’s the best way to sort through the board when there might be as many as four NHL games and four NBA games on a given day?
SS: You definitely want to look at younger teams that are inexperienced on the road in the playoffs. The playoff environment in the NBA I think is severely underrated. It is really hard to go win road playoff games if you’re a younger team, lower seed, things of that nature. The spreads will align that way. The money and value will align that way as well, but early in the first round it might be fun to round-robin some of the lower seeds that are on the road if you see [multiple such teams] in a day or parlay them in that regard.
Depth is a major issue. The Heat are always a scary matchup in the Eastern Conference. They are well-coached. Teams that have a little bit more depth might be able to steal games early. Teams that have been able to get solid bench minutes, solid bench production and have a successful second wave there, a little bit of experience — everybody talks about Heat culture in that regard. Look at some of those deeper teams. It’s definitely an overwhelming slate, and playoff basketball is very different from the regular season — maybe more so than any other sport in terms of the turn-up of intensity, especially on the defensive end.
PB: How do you take into account the style of game being so different in the playoffs in both the NBA and NHL?
SS: I think that you don’t want to buy into analytics and trends from the regular season. You want to tread with caution in that regard. The Clippers load-manage Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and all these guys. They’re rested. Their numbers or mismatches or matchups in the regular season, it’s tough when getting to the playoffs when the game is so different. In hockey, the overtime looks a lot different. The Rangers are outstanding in overtime, [but] it’s different.
I think you want to buck trends, especially on the opening weekend when you’re trying to go look through and find the last time these two teams matched up, they had this outcome, this result. It’s a different ballgame. Guys with injuries are willing to really play through it. Guys who have been saving up for the playoffs are ready.
I think oftentimes a sleeping giant will wake up in the playoffs. That’s why there is some complaining about the products in the regular season, but it does ensure the best teams do make it to the playoffs and once they start, all bets are off and it’s time for those teams to play that more intense, physical style in both sports. That’s what separates the playoffs and that’s why they’re so exciting and entertaining. Definitely try to fade regular-season trends or matchups, things like that, that didn’t have intensity about them.
PB: What are your favorite props to play during the NBA and NHL playoffs?
SS: You will see guards go get more rebounds. That is something that comes to mind. … If you think there’s a tight matchup [in the NHL], oftentimes you can get plus money or around even money. If you think there’s a matchup that’s going to be really close, you can do +2.5 on both teams and then do an under. If it seems to be a close, defensive, gritty, hot playoff game, [take] both teams to cover 2.5 and then the under. That’s been something I’ve been able to do a few times this year. In the playoffs, obviously, scoring is at a premium. If you think you find a matchup with two teams that you think are going to beat the crap out of each other down to the wire, you can take both of them to cover and use that under. That’s maybe the more complex one I can think of.
Photo Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Originally published April 17, 2024