We reach the proverbial “quarter pole” of MLB season this week.
I’ve long thought that in any sport, it’s not realistic to judge a team until hitting that “quarter pole,” in which 25 percent of the season has been played. That 25 percent marker is when it starts getting tougher to dismiss trends due to a “small sample size.”
(I was workshopping a joke that would suggest that baseball season and my second trip to the Mother’s Day Brunch buffet had “no longer a small sample size” in common, but I didn’t like the wording after the first three tries and apparently Nikki Glaser doesn’t respond to Twitter DMs that say “I have a question about my size,” which is weird.)
The broad observation to make at the quarter pole is, of course, that the Orioles are very good. They have the best record in the American League as I type, the vibes are high and the beer is cold.
The ironic observation is that, after we learned about the injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means before the season, we again became concerned about the team’s pitching but figured the offense would be good enough to carry them through those choppy waters.
In reality, there’s been no need for that. Entering play on May 13, the Orioles are fifth in MLB with a 3.34 team ERA and tied for third with a 1.11 WHIP. Their 3.30 strikeout-to-walk ratio is similarly the third best in all of baseball. The worst ERA among the starters — excluding the injured Tyler Wells, who is unlikely to return to the rotation — is Dean Kremer’s 3.72. Perhaps the best thing that can be said about the starters is that they throw strikes. Only five rotations in all of baseball have a lower walks-per-nine-innings rate than the Orioles’ 2.33.
The starting pitching has been so good that we’re at a point where it feels like having one start that is even less than exceptional might be what leads a starter to being out of the rotation for a minute. Dean Kremer allowed just three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Diamondbacks on May 12 and if Grayson Rodriguez were to be able to return when he’s eligible this week (it seems like he might need a little time beyond that), we’d probably say it was Kremer that might have to be skipped.
Yes, we still have some thoughts, concerns and queries at the back end of the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel has bounced back nicely from being temporarily “demoted,” turning in two perfect innings in still-high-leverage situations against Arizona. It seems like a good thing to me if the Orioles could establish Yennier Cano as their closer and still use Kimbrel in leverage spots with a lesser overall workload. But until we see any of that with consistency (or with an outside acquisition), we’re going feel uneasy.
But back to the offense for a second. That’s obviously very good, too! Their 5.08 runs-per-game mark stands as the third best in baseball behind just the Dodgers and Phillies. The Orioles have hit more home runs than any other team in baseball. Their .442 slugging percentage is the best in baseball. If that continues, they’ll obviously be in great shape.
And yet, is it possible the offense has been a bit disappointing?
As a team, the Birds have hit .246, which is good for eighth in MLB. That’s certainly not bad, per se, but their on-base percentage is just .306, tied for 17th. That’s because they have just a 6.9 percent walk percentage, which is … the second lowest in all of baseball.
So yeah, it’s an offense that is … pretty reliant on the long ball. Which is … OK, I guess? I mean, the Orioles hit a great many of them. So as long as they keep doing that, they’re probably going to be OK. And since it’s getting warmer (allegedly) soon, the ball should start flying even more significantly.
But it’s time for me to play one of my favorite games, a game called “I Have A Theory.” For example, “I Have A Theory” that teams with on-base percentages that low and/or that comparatively low don’t win the World Series. So I went ahead and looked at all of the World Series winners from this millennium and (more or less), score one for Glenn!
2023 Rangers .337 (No. 3 in MLB)
2022 Astros .319 (No. 7)
2021 Braves .319 (No. 12)
2020 Dodgers .338 (No. 5)
2019 Nationals .342 (No. 2)
2018 Red Sox .339 (No. 1)
2017 Astros .346 (No. 1)
2016 Cubs .343 (No. 2)
2015 Royals .322 (No. 11)
2014 Giants .311 (No. 18)
2013 Red Sox .349 (No. 1)
2012 Giants .327 (No. 8)
2011 Cardinals .341 (No. 3)
2010 Giants .321 (No. 19)
2009 Yankees .362 (No. 1)
2008 Phillies .332 (No. 16)
2007 Red Sox .362 (No. 2)
2006 Cardinals .337 (No. 14)
2005 White Sox .322 (No. 24)
2004 Red Sox .360 (No. 1)
2003 Marlins .333 (No. 15)
2002 Angels .341 (No. 6)
2001 Diamondbacks .341 (No. 8)
2000 Yankees .354 (No. 9)
There are some outliers in there. The 2014 Giants had the worst on-base percentage of a modern World Series winner (by eight points), and four of the 24 Fall Classic champions finished in the bottom of half of on-base. But even the lowest on-base clip of a modern World Series winner was still five points higher than the Orioles currently.
So how does it get better? Presumably it starts with Cedric Mullins. There’s no avoiding it. He’s getting on base at a disastrous .244 clip. And yet, every time you watch someone else play center field you think, “Yeah, you gotta have Mullins out there.” Still, he has to get going. Or at some point the defensive trade-off, as significant as it might be, will not be worth it.
But it’s not just Mullins. The Orioles’ 0.31 walk-to-strikeout rate this season is worse than all but two teams in baseball. The only regulars on the team with a walk-to-strikeout ratio better than 0.4 are Ryan O’Hearn (13 walks and only 9 strikeouts) and Anthony Santander (12 and 29). Since April 26, Colton Cowser has just 4 walks to go along with 17 strikeouts.
It has to improve. And there’s plenty of time for that.
But in the meantime if they keep pitching well and hitting home runs, they’ll be fine.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox