Trevor Rogers burst onto the scene in 2021. The former first-round pick was an All-Star and finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting in his first full season in the big leagues for the Marlins. He was on the verge of ace status.
Except that didn’t happen. Rogers struggled mightily the next year to the tune of a 5.47 ERA and had been searching to rediscover his 2021 success the past few seasons. He has found it with the Orioles.
“I’m really liking where I’m at,” Rogers said.
After being traded to Baltimore at last year’s trade deadline, Rogers compiled an ERA north of 7.00 in four starts. He started this year in the minors after battling right knee subluxation. He was called up as the 27th man in a doubleheader in May but was sent back down to Triple-A Norfolk despite throwing 6.1 shutout innings.
Rogers was recalled less than a month later and has thrived since returning to Baltimore. He has a miniscule 1.86 ERA in five starts since then, the latest 6.2 dazzling innings against his former team to close out his first half.
“If I were to face them with the stuff I had last year, it probably would have been a 50-50 toss-up, but with the work that I’ve put in this year and where my stuff’s at now, was really confident going into it,” Rogers said.
Rogers’ path back to ace-level pitching wasn’t easy.
The start of his struggles coincided with injuries. He dealt with back spasms in late July 2022, keeping him out for a month. He returned to the injured list three weeks later with a left lat strain. Then came the big blow, a biceps strain in his throwing arm that limited his 2023 to only four starts.
Jacob Stallings, who joined the Orioles July 1 amid myriad catching injuries, caught Rogers in 2022 and 2023 with the Marlins. The two had lockers next to each other both years.
Stallings has noticed the differences between Rogers then and now. The 27-year-old lefty is as confident as ever. That comes with health.
“When you’re trying to go out there and you’re not confident in your health, it’s even harder to compete,” Stallings said.
When Stallings worked with Rogers in Miami, the latter was a primary fastball-changeup pitcher. That worked wonders in 2021 — batters hit .199 with a .265 slugging percentage off Rogers’ changeup that season — but Rogers struggled as he lost effectiveness of the changeup. Between 2022 and 2024, batters hit .275 off the changeup with a .407 slugging percentage.
A change was needed to Rogers’ repertoire. He started incorporating a pair of breaking balls into his arsenal. That’s one of the biggest differences Stallings sees in Rogers since the first time they were together.
Rogers has thrown a slider since arriving in the big leagues, but the effectiveness of it has come and gone in the first five seasons of his career. This year, Rogers is throwing the slider the lowest percentage of the time in his career, but he’s having more success with the pitch.
The biggest addition was a sweeper. While seldomly used, batters have yet to record a hit off the pitch and have a 55 percent whiff rate against it. Rogers’ put-away rate with the pitch is a remarkable 38.1 percent. For reference, the best pitch in the game by that metric, Astros lefty Bennett Sousa’s slider, has a 40 percent put-away rate.
“Trevor has been doing a great job,” Stallings said. “To have a guy come up and throw really well, it’s really important for our team.”
Rogers says that staying in the moment and within his process instead of dwelling on the past or focusing on the future has helped him a lot this year. That mentality was evident in his start against the Marlins.
The outing started with a 25-pitch first inning in which Rogers stranded a pair of runners. He retired the side in order the next three innings. A two-out single in the seventh inning ended Rogers’ night, and what followed was a standing ovation from the home faithful on the walk back to the dugout in a moment that “meant the world” to Rogers.
The start to Rogers’ Orioles tenure was disastrous. The fans will forever link him to Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers — who made the NL All-Star team in his first season in Miami — by virtue of the trade. That’s why the ovation meant so much.
“It really came full circle,” Rogers said. “They were tough on me, but at the end of the day in the back of my mind I knew I wasn’t who I knew I could be … a full-circle moment, it was pretty special.”
Rogers’ 2025 sample size is small with just 35.1 innings, but the talent he’s shown is undeniable.
“I think we have to believe it,” interim manager Tony Mansolino said. “The stuff’s good, the stuff’s really good.”
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox