In a move that seemingly materialized out of nowhere, the Orioles have reunited with right-handed starter Zach Eflin on a one-year contract for 2026 with a mutual option for 2027. The deal breaks down to pay Eflin a signing bonus of $3 million, a base of $5 million and a buyout of at least $2 million on the 2027 option.
So, in essence it’s a one-year deal worth $10 million guaranteed for Eflin, who is recovering from August back surgery. There has been a theme to every column I have written this offseason, and this signing follows in that theme: It’s much easier to be smart when your bosses aren’t telling you what you can’t do. This ownership group led by David Rubenstein urges president of baseball operations Mike Elias to improve the Orioles when he has a chance.
Don’t confuse this move with the Orioles throwing in the towel on signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez. No, not after last season with all the rotation issues the club had. Grayson Rodriguez never posted. Cade Povich was spotty and hurt. Albert Suárez was unavailable for most of the season. Eflin was on the injured list three times. No young starter was waiting in the wings to come to the rescue.
It must have stuck in Elias’ mind that it wouldn’t be a bad idea to do what the Dodgers always seem to do in pulling pitching out of their hat throughout a 162-game season.
Ahead of the trade deadline in 2024, Elias gave up three prospects in right-hander Jackson Baumeister, outfielder Matthew Etzel and utility man Mac Horvath for Eflin, who was under contract for another season and a half.
Eflin helped the Orioles reach the playoffs in 2024, posting a 2.60 ERA in 55.1 innings (nine starts) down the stretch. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound right-hander was the Opening Day starter for the Orioles in 2025, but not much went right after he fired six innings of two-run ball in Toronto to kick off the season. He had a 5.93 ERA in 71.1 innings (14 starts) and wound up on the injured list three separate times, the last such instance leading to back surgery.
Eflin’s recovery at the time of the surgery was expected to take four to eight months. The fact that the Orioles announced the signing means Eflin has passed his physical and the club must believe he’ll be ready on the shorter side of that estimated return schedule.
While I still feel the Orioles could sign Valdez, Ranger Suárez or even Lucas Giolito in free agency or turn Coby Mayo and another prospect or two into a significant arm, there does remain the chance that the club opens the season with a rotation of Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. This time around they’ll have Eflin waiting in the wings in the event of an injury along with Albert Suárez and perhaps a more mature Povich.
What’s the best-scenario here? The top five starters are all healthy and Eflin is lights out in his rehab in April. Eflin could possibly take Wells’ spot in the rotation, sliding Wells back to the bullpen. Eflin on a one-year deal could also bring back a nice prospect in mid-May if he is deemed expendable.
This is a smart insurance move by Elias as he rounds out the team he’ll be presenting to first-year skipper Craig Albernaz.
One thing is very clear as we head into 2026. Elias is getting much more comfortable with his new working conditions and the much larger wallet he has at his beck and call.
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