It’s hard to discuss this appropriately. Even bringing it up can constitute an amount of fear-mongering.
With the hire of Jesse Minter now in the rearview mirror, the focus of the Ravens’ offseason now shifts back to a familiar place. The single-most pressing issue facing the team now becomes the status of contract extension negotiations with Lamar Jackson. And with that, questions about the status of contract extension negotiations with Lamar Jackson. And with that, questions about why we haven’t heard about the status of contract extension negotiations with Lamar Jackson. And with that, questions about what it might mean if we don’t hear about the status of contract extension negotiations with Lamar Jackson.
The conversations were louder and more dramatic in 2023 because Jackson’s contract was actually up. Some people even made silly fourth-grade art projects in attempt to measure the likelihood of Jackson being back in Baltimore. But the conversation is nearly as relevant in 2026, even if we don’t want it to be.
Let me be clear. There is absolutely zero credible evidence that Jackson wants out of Baltimore or that Baltimore wants to move on from Jackson. None. Zero. It does not exist whatsoever.
Yet multiple stories have been written recently by credible national reporters regarding the possibility of a Jackson trade. Jackson himself added to the strange nature of the conversation by retweeting a post about such a hypothetical move, although he quickly acknowledged he hadn’t intended anything by it.
Again, there’s no actual reason to think that this will end in any other way than the Ravens and Jackson coming to an agreement on a deal that lowers the $74.5 million cap figure he is scheduled to account for in 2026. Owner Steve Bisciotti even suggested as much during the team’s end-of-season news conference:
“We want another window, and Lamar knows that. I think that he’s amenable to doing something that mirrors the last deal he did, although the annual number will be a little higher. But I’m hoping that it’s plug a new number in the same contract he signed last [time] and move on.”
Bisciotti suggested that if, for some reason, the sides were unable to reach an agreement that the team could automatically restructure the deal, just spreading the cap hit out into void years. But that of course would only delay the problem, not solve it.
And getting to that point would reflect a much larger problem. The Ravens and Jackson knew this time was coming when they agreed to the quarterback’s current contract in 2023. They recognized they would have to go back to the table before free agency started in 2026. The number has to be lowered to allow for the team to be able to make the upgrades necessary to be a Super Bowl contender again in Jesse Minter’s first season. Not doing so would be detrimental to everyone involved, including Jackson, who has spoken about his desire to win the Super Bowl since the moment he was drafted by the franchise.
This isn’t a problem today, specifically. But it is a problem when we get toward the tempering window opening on March 9 and free agency officially starting on March 11. And since we all know the illegal tampering window starts before that, it might be a problem as soon as, say, when the NFL Scouting Combine starts on Feb. 23.
So what if the Ravens get to, like, Feb. 20 and there’s been no movement in the negotiations? What do they do?
I keep saying there’s no reason to think this ends in any other way, but there has to be a practical consideration to this. If for whatever reason the Ravens can’t get conversations going at a time when everyone knows it needs to be done, there kinda has to be a bigger problem. There’s no way around it. There’s no reason to not get this done right now. So where does that leave things if they don’t?
It’s easy to respond to posts about hypothetical Jackson trades by saying, “There’s a zero percent chance that happens.” Truth be told, I think the math is close. I think it’s slim. If I was doing a fourth-grade art project meter reading, I’d say it’s something like 2 percent. But I’d also say it’s 2 percent and still worth monitoring.
Jackson might not have taken Bisciotti up on his offer to fly in for coaching interviews, but I do understand he was part of them. It would be wildly illogical for Jackson to have any interest in being with one of the teams that has cap space and a quarterback need, like the Raiders or Jets. Perhaps now that the coaching search is over, the organization’s entire energy can be put behind getting this done.
There’s no reason to think it won’t. There is almost no chance Lamar Jackson won’t be a Raven moving forward, but it’s still a situation that deserves monitoring.
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