The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end) defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s too. I’m guilty of this myself – see Corey Davis in more than half of these mocks – but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you are drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn on notifications from your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
This mock draft is for a standard league, otherwise called a non-points-per-reception (non-PPR) league. Like the 16-team and Superflex mocks, I will be using a middle pick (No. 6) to construct my roster. (See also: No. 1 pick – 3 RBs, No. 1 pick – 2 RBs/1 WR, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick, No. 5 pick, No. 6 pick, No. 7 pick, No. 8 pick, No. 9 pick, No. 10 pick, No. 11 pick, 16-team league, Superflex). I’ll have a 10-team mock available on Sept. 5 before we dive into the Week 1 content beginning on Sept. 6.
Let’s get going with my second-to-last mock draft of the 2022 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 6: Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Round 2, Pick 7: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Round 3, Pick 6: A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 4, Pick 7: Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 5, Pick 6: D.K Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 6, Pick 7: Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
Round 7, Pick 6: Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Round 8, Pick 7: Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers
Round 9, Pick 6: Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Round 10, Pick 7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 11, Pick 6: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Round 12, Pick 7: D’Onta Foreman, RB, Carolina Panthers
Round 13, Pick 6: Semaje Perine, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 14, Pick 7: Dontrell Hilliard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Round 15, Pick 6: New Orleans Saints DST
Round 16, Pick 7: Brandon McManus, K, Denver Broncos
Observations:
The strategy changes in these non-PPR leagues as running backs move up the board substantially, in particular those who don’t catch a lot of passes. Derrick Henry is No. 6 in my half-PPR rankings but moves up to No. 3 in standard leagues. That allowed Dalvin Cook to fall to me with the sixth pick. Cook averaged 106.4 total yards per game last season, and that’s the productivity you want in the first round of this style of league. He only found the end zone six times but should get double-digit touchdowns.
Nick Chubb falling this far in a standard league is surprising. Many around the league believe that Chubb is the best pure running back in the NFL, and if it wasn’t for Kareem Hunt also being on the roster, he’s a top-five pick regardless of the type of fantasy league you’re in. He is the only back in NFL history to average 5.0 yards per carry in his first four seasons and is a force at the goal line. He’s the perfect second-round selection in non-PPR settings.
A.J. Brown was never the focal point for the Titans since they ran their offense through Derrick Henry, but he still made his impact as a physical, deep-threat receiver. The Eagles led the league in rushing last season but should be a bit more balanced with Brown in the fold. He’s so tough to bring down after the catch and will get a ton of looks in the red zone. The potential is there for Brown to finish as a top-five receiver.
I like quarterbacks a little bit more in non-PPR leagues, and my top QB was staring at me with this pick. Justin Herbert has all the pieces around him to be an MVP candidate. He threw for 5,000-plus yards and 38 touchdowns in just his second NFL season and still has Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler at his disposal. He’s also mildly underrated as a runner with eight rushing touchdowns in his career. This is the year he puts it all together and the Chargers finally make some noise in the AFC title race.
I want nothing to do with D.K Metcalf this early in PPR, but he’s a good fit in a standard league. The most receptions he’s had in his short career was 83 in 2020 with a healthy Russell Wilson. The quarterback play in Seattle is going to be dreadful with Geno Smith at the helm, but like Brown, Metcalf is a red-zone threat and tough for defenders to defend with his size and speed. I don’t need him to catch 80 balls. I only need eight touchdowns (or more) to be satisfied with this pick.
The Bills figure to score a ton of points this year and that bodes well for Devin Singletary. He was given the lead-back duties in December and January, and there was talk that Buffalo was considering parting ways with Zack Moss. James Cook will see action as a pass-catcher, but that means little to us in standard scoring. I want the player who is going to get the bulk of the carries and goal-line opportunities. Based on the usage down the stretch last year, Singletary is that guy. Moss might vulture a few scores, which will be frustrating at times, but the Bills figure to be leading in plenty of games and Singletary will be the beneficiary.
Have you seen the Ravens’ receiving depth chart? Rashod Bateman is the only wideout that strikes fear in any opposing defense. Mark Andrews will be the No. 1 target for Lamar Jackson, and it’s looking like fellow tight end Isaiah Likely will get his fair share of action. Bateman was unlucky in the touchdown department last season and will get most of the vacated targets from the Marquise Brown trade. The Ravens are expected to get back to their run-dominant offense, and as such, Bateman won’t catch 100 balls, but he will be a factor in the play-action game and find the end zone.
Someone has to catch passes from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, and Allen Lazard figures to be his go-to guy with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling on new teams. Whether it was Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson or Adams, Rodgers has produced a top-10 receiver. He won back-to-back MVPs and will be in the discussion again. Lazard is next in line to become his star wideout.
Zach Ertz has become a frequent target of mine in Round 9, regardless of the league type. He’s gotten 100-plus targets in six of the last seven seasons. That shouldn’t change this year with DeAndre Hopkins set to miss time with a suspension. If he posts a similar stat line as 2021 — 74 receptions, 763 yards and five touchdowns — Ertz will once again a top-five tight end.
I went with five backup running backs to round out my skill position players, many of whom are backups I haven’t selected in any other mock draft. I’m a firm believer Tyler Allgeier will ultimately take over the Falcons’ starting running back duties by midseason. Raheem Mostert is moving up draft boards with the Dolphins releasing Sony Michel. The expectation is Mostert will split the early-down work with Chase Edmonds. D’Onta Foreman, Samaje Perine and Dontrell Hillard are all handcuffs to first-round running backs. If Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon or Derrick Henry goes down, I’ve got a starter with my final picks.
The running back pool dries up very quickly in these non-PPR leagues. You want to stash as many as possible throughout the draft because what we are looking for in this type of league are opportunities to score touchdowns. Cook, Chubb and Singletary should all get most, if not all, of the goal-line carries for their respective teams, and you can make the same argument for Allgeier and Mostert. There were still plenty of receiving options available in the later rounds if needed, but absolutely make sure you have plenty of backs to get through the season.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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