If you look at any list of the top 50 free agents, there are about 20 starting pitchers just about any team in baseball would love to have.
If you are a fan of the Orioles, you know they need better starting pitching, but don’t expect general manager Mike Elias to shop at the top of the starting pitching market. That means no Jacob deGrom, no Chris Bassitt, no Carlos Rodón, no Justin Verlander, no Clayton Kershaw, no Nathan Eovaldi and probably no Taijuan Walker or Kodai Senga.
That still leaves plenty of attractive starting pitching possibilities. Certainly, the Orioles’ starting staff could be bolstered by a José Quintana, Jameson Taillon or Zach Eflin. If I woke up one day and heard the Orioles had signed any of these three, I’d be enthused and feel they were a good step up from Jordan Lyles, even if a bit more expensive.
But as I dig into explaining my worldview on how the Orioles will take the next incremental steps at improving upon what they did in 2022, I want to give you a couple names who really could move the Orioles’ rotation up the ladder a good bit: Marlins lefty Jesús Luzardo and White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito.
Luzardo is a 25-year-old lefty. Originally a Nationals prospect, he was dealt to the Athletics for relief pitchers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle in 2017, back when Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was hunting for the World Series he eventually got in 2019.
Luzardo has had his fair share of injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2016, rotator cuff and lat strains in 2019, a broken finger in 2021 and a nearly three-month absence with a forearm strain in 2022. But the left-hander came back with a vengeance in his last several starts this past season.
Former Orioles manager Buck Showalter would always warn us in the media not to weigh performances in March (spring training) or September (when some teams may not be playing their true starting lineups) too heavily. However, with Luzardo that warning can be dismissed based on the fact he was simply healthy.
Get a load of his numbers in his last six starts this past season: 35 innings, 3.09 ERA, 26 hits, 12 earned runs, five home runs, 10 walks, 47 strikeouts and a .639 opponent OPS. During that stretch, he had an 11-strikeout performance against the Cubs and a 12-strikeout gem against the Braves (before they had clinched first place in the NL East).
It would certainly take something to pry away Luzardo. The Marlins have a good bit of starting pitching but do need to improve their outfield defense and speed. Cedric Mullins and a decent prospect would seem to be a fair ask and return. Luzardo and Mullins are entering their first pass through arbitration, though Luzardo has four years of club control remaining and Mullins three. Luzardo is projected to earn $2 million and Mullins $4.4 million this coming season, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Orioles fans are probably a lot more familiar with Giolito because he started his big league career with the Nationals and was then traded to the White Sox following the 2016 season along with right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning for Adam Eaton, who was a solid contributor with the Nats for a few years, including their 2019 World Series season.
Giolito, 28, has been a bit of a mixed bag, but his best years could well be in front of him. The 6-foot-6, 245-pound right-hander appeared to be on the cusp of stardom entering the 2022 season. Giolito started 72 games from 2019-2021, posting a 3.47 ERA and striking out 526 hitters across 427.2 innings.
The White Sox offered Giolito a four-year, $50 million deal ahead of the 2021 season that would have bought out his final three arbitration years and one free-agent year. Giolito turned it down, and that looked like the right move, at least until 2022 rolled around. Giolito ended up winning 11 games this past year, but he pitched to a 4.90 ERA and allowed more hits than innings. His strikeout numbers, while not soft, did not bare a resemblance to his 2021 dominance.
What would it take to lasso in a big fish like Giolito? For starters, the Orioles would need to hand over Anthony Santander, who has two years of club control remaining. The White Sox would want a prospect to sweeten the pot. In that case, Elias should probably insist on a 48-hour window to sign Giolito, who is currently scheduled to hit free agency following the 2023 season. Maybe Giolito would be receptive to a two- or three-year deal coming off a down 2022.
If I could add both Luzardo and Giolito, I’d do it. But that would take Mullins and Santander, so I’d be very happy with just one. Say the Orioles got Luzardo and Eflin … or Luzardo and Jameson Taillon. I’d have a grin like a Cheshire cat.
The Orioles’ offense, as previously discussed, needs a good bit of work. That .305 on-base territory just won’t play if the Orioles are to become really relevant and be taken seriously.
One offensive player who I think would be a super fit for the Orioles is third baseman Justin Turner, who actually was an Oriole a long, long time ago. He was acquired along with Ryan Freel and Brandon Waring from the Reds for catcher Ramón Hernández. Turner had three hits in 31 plate appearances as an Oriole from 2009-2010. He got more of a chance with the Mets from 2011-2013.
He was 29 years old when he got to the Dodgers in 2014. He was a solid contributor in 2014 and 2015, then a valued regular from 2016 through the end of this season. The Dodgers had a $16 million team option on him for 2023. They declined that, making him a free agent entering his age-38 season.
The Orioles would need to strike quickly and with purpose. If they go in and see how cheaply they can get Turner, it won’t work. The Dodgers will definitely take Turner back at $10 million or $11 million for one season. The Orioles can offer the chance to be an important part of the renaissance of a once-proud franchise. They can offer him two years at about $22 million total with a 2025 club option of, say, $13.5 million.
Turner can fit at third base, first base and DH. His career line tells the story: .289/.366/.466. His numbers were a bit down in 2022, but it’s not like it was a season of decline. It was a season in which he started off slowly and then really came on late. He had a .734 OPS in the first half and an .889 OPS in the second half.
Turner could be the 2023 version of Rougned Odor, just with the ability — even at his age — to be productive enough to lift the Orioles and show them how to win.
See Also:
• Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles Sets Up Orioles’ Areas For Improvement: Lineup
• Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles Sets Up Orioles’ Areas For Improvement: Starting Rotation
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