The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too. I’m guilty of this myself, but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We are already at the fifth pick with a lot more fantasy analysis upcoming.
(See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick).
We’ll mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex and non-PPR draft.
Let’s get started on the latest mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 5: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 2, Pick 8: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Round 3, Pick 5: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 4, Pick 8: Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
Round 5, Pick 5: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Round 6, Pick 8: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Round 7, Pick 5: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 8, Pick 8: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Round 9, Pick 5: Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints
Round 10, Pick 8: Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Round 11, Pick 5: Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
Round 12, Pick 8: Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders
Round 13, Pick 5: Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Round 14, Pick 8: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 15, Pick 5: Philadelphia Eagles D/ST
Round 16, Pick 8: Brandon McManus, K, Jacksonville Jaguars
Observations:
I have Travis Kelce lower in my rankings, but the Chiefs tight end is currently No. 5 in ESPN’s PPR rankings and No. 6 in FantasyPros’ consensus rankings. ESPN even had a discussion about making Kelce the top pick overall, and it’s an interesting argument. He’s the most consistent player in fantasy for the past decade at a position that’s so volatile. There will be very few (if any) weeks Kelce owners will be outscored by an opponent’s tight end.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency since entering the league in 2021. His rookie season he finished with 90 receptions for 912 yards and five touchdowns. Last season, he tallied 106 catches for 1,161 yards and six scores. If he can get even better in Year 3, when receivers typically take their game to a new level, he could be looking at 115 receptions and double-digit touchdowns. Jameson Williams will take some targets away when he returns from his suspension, but St. Brown has proven he’s a WR1.
Let’s grab another one of the most dependable players in recent years with Joe Mixon in the third round. Mixon is tied to one of the league’s best offenses and was second in the NFL in goal-line carries with 28. He also recorded career highs in receptions (60) and receiving yards (441). Samaje Perine took on a larger workload last season as Mixon battled nagging injuries, but Perine is now in Denver and Mixon doesn’t have much competition for touches. He’s one of the few running backs who garner around 20 touches a game and he’s another player who has double-digit touchdown potential.
The Carolina Panthers have gone through an overhaul on offense, making Miles Sanders one of the few running backs to get a contract this offseason. Sanders hasn’t offered much in the passing game throughout his career, but he’s shown he can handle the bulk of the carries and his familiarity with Frank Reich make him the clear starter. Sanders won’t be running behind the best offensive line in the game this season, but Carolina’s line isn’t too shabby. The potential is there for Sanders to be the bell cow for the Panthers.
My next three picks are WR2 who have WR1 potential. Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk and Tyler Lockett all have other receivers on their respective rosters to compete. We’ve already seen on several occasions Lockett be disrespected in the predraft process and finish as a top receiver. Jeudy showed in the second half of last season why the Broncos used a first-round pick on the former Alabama star. Aiyuk, another former first-rounder, is being drafted well behind his teammate Deebo Samuel and it’s mind-boggling. Aiyuk was statistically better across the board.
I’ve been targeting Antonio Gibson often in these mock drafts, but let’s not forget about the other back for the Commanders. Brian Robinson Jr. was the lead back once he returned from getting shot (so weird to type that), averaging 17.5 carries per game when both players were on the field. I’ve compared Gibson to Jerick McKinnon in Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Robinson can play Isiah Pacheco’s role, which was FLEX-worthy last season.
I’m still without a quarterback after eight rounds, and I’m a believer that once the top eight QBs are off the board, you should just wait at the position. I continue to bolster my depth with my next four picks. Jamaal Williams is someone I was targeting even before the news of Alvin Kamara’s suspension. Rondale Moore could be in for a breakout season. Devin Singletary isn’t going to be just a handcuff. Curtis Samuel is that jack-of-all-trades weapon. Bieniemy is going to draw up plays that allow him to make an impact.
Round 13 and I have choices at quarterback. I ultimately went with Geno Smith because I have faith that last year wasn’t a fluke. If anything, the Seahawks only got better on offense with the additions of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. Russell Wilson was also an option, and in higher on him than most, but I decided to stack Smith with Lockett.
My last skill position pick is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, somehow an afterthought in the receiving room in Kansas City. Everyone seems to be hyping up Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, but MVS is by far the most productive.
I’m not the biggest fan of taking Kelce so early, but after this mock, I can envision a championship team built around a first-round tight end. I don’t have the elite receiver or running back, but getting St. Brown and Mixon in the next rounds makes me comfortable about those positions. The depth is strong by waiting for a quarterback, and if for some reason Smith isn’t the same player this season, there is always a QB who goes undrafted that becomes fantasy relevant.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox