Despite a tough weekend, the Baltimore Orioles are 58-55 since Tony Mansolino was elevated to interim manager.
Their reasonable turnaround, particularly after selling off many parts at the trade deadline, has brought Mansolino back into the picture as the team seeks a new manager. There hasn’t necessarily been a groundswell of support for Mansolino to take the full-time reins, but there have been rumblings about the possibility given how the team has held things together.
This column is about that very concept and why I don’t think Mansolino should be the choice. But let me start by acknowledging a few things.
First, I think Mansolino does deserve some credit for things not going completely off the rails this season.
Second, a .513 winning percentage would have been a disappointment before the season began, but I acknowledge the 15-28 start was so disastrous that expectations changed.
Third, you may remember that when the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde, my opinion was that they should hire an experienced manager midseason. So I will also acknowledge the possibility of confirmation bias in my findings.
Fourth, I’d love to see Mansolino be considered for a role on the next manager’s coaching staff. I don’t think a new manager should ever be forced to keep someone on staff, but I’d like to see him considered.
And fifth, if the Orioles choose to make Mansolino their full-time manager, I hope he will have a greater impact than Earl Weaver himself.
With all of that said, again, I don’t think Mansolino has earned the job. That’s in part because the most compelling argument for keeping Mansolino is the mildly successful record. After the disastrous start, Mansolino’s record wasn’t likely going to matter. It would have taken a miracle for the record to be the most important part of the equation. In fact, I would be willing to make the argument for Mansolino myself even with a sub-.500 record IF he checked the far more important evaluation box.
Putting it simply, the reason I don’t think Mansolino should be the full-time manager of the Orioles is because we didn’t see the core offensive players take a necessary step forward after he took over.
The Orioles have won games because they’ve pitched fairly well — certainly much better than could be expected. Trevor Rogers is a revelation. Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells have pitched well in late-season cameos. Their offense has been brutal and the “Core-ioles” are at the center of that.
For the sake of this argument, I’m establishing the core group as the truly “homegrown” Orioles of the Mike Elias era: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and now Dylan Beavers and Samuel Basallo. The Orioles’ ability to return to championship contention centers around this group. They can’t get there without the bulk of this group succeeding.
Here are their numbers under Mansolino:
Samuel Basallo: .188/.243/.375 with four home runs in 103 plate appearances
Dylan Beavers : .256/.407/.433 with three home runs in 114 plate appearances
Colton Cowser: .202/.272/.390 with 14 home runs in 320 plate appearances
Gunnar Henderson: .279/.364/.428 with 10 home runs in 470 plate appearances
Jackson Holliday: .242/.314/.379 with 13 home runs in 491 plate appearances
Heston Kjerstad: .164/.193/.273 with no home runs in 57 plate appearances
Coby Mayo: .214/.292/.378 with nine home runs in 264 plate appearances
Adley Rutschman: .239/.311/.399 with five home runs in 188 plate appearances
Jordan Westburg: .278/.332/.467 with 11 home runs in 229 plate appearances
Since Mansolino took over, there’s very little to say here. Beavers has been incredible since his arrival. When healthy, Westburg has been consistent, save for last week. Henderson has been steady, but his numbers are down from his .842 career OPS under Hyde. Holliday has had some moments, but he still has just a .693 OPS since the managerial change.
Westburg isn’t the only player who has dealt with injuries. Rutschman and Cowser have been impacted by them this season as well. But when healthy, both have been worse (and arguably disastrous) since Mansolino took over. Rutschman has a .710 OPS, down from a still disappointing career mark of .758. Cowser has a .662 OPS since the change, down from a career mark of .705. Basallo and Mayo have also struggled. We could dismiss Basallo’s numbers coming in too small a sample size for a rookie, but that would require dismissing Beavers’ success as well.
For the record, Kjerstad’s post-managerial-change OPS was just .466 before the team hit the pause button.
It’s just not working. It’s not all Mansolino’s fault. It might not be Mansolino’s fault at all. But it’s a massive problem that can’t be masked by a slightly-above-.500 record. The success of this group is paramount. For Mansolino to prove that he could be the right man to lead them moving forward, he needed to prove that he could be the one to help solve the crisis facing this group.
The Orioles have other needs. They need a GM and more starting pitching and a rebuilt bullpen and probably another veteran outfielder too. But none of this matters if this group doesn’t perform. They’re going to hold the jobs. They’re going to get the playing time. They have to be better than what they’ve been. And there needs to be a manager who has a plan for fixing this and a track record that proves he can.
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