I have watched the 2026 Orioles through 91 games, many of which have been painful. Now more than ever, they need a skilled hand at the rudder at what may be the most important and critical few weeks of the Mike Elias era.
I am not sure long term that Elias is that steady hand at the rudder that the Orioles need. He did a masterful teardown and rebuild. Clearly, he was hindered by the financial constraints the John Angelos-led Orioles were under. Those constraints contributed mightily to tying Elias’ hands when he had completed the rebuild. That led to the 0-5 playoff record under Brandon Hyde.
But long term is not really the question here with the 2026 MLB Draft in less than a week and the trade deadline on Aug. 3. It’ll be Elias calling the shots on both.
As for the deadline, I suppose Elias’ assertion 10 days ago that he would like to be a buyer at the deadline was always based on how the club played in the short term. The Orioles have gone an uninspiring 8-10 since the start of a critical nine-game West Coast trip. I feel confident they’ll attempt to sell off a couple pieces ahead of the deadline.
So here is some unsolicited advice for Elias on who should go and who should stay.
Taylor Ward
The Orioles were wise to move on from Grayson Rodriguez last offseason. Then-Angels GM Perry Minasian was just the guy for Elias to match up with to make this calculated move. Elias got Ward, who was coming off of a 36-homer season and entering his final year of club control. Ward has locked down the left field job.
As we get close to the All-Star break, Ward is hitting .253/.378/.353 with five home runs, 23 RBIs and 67 walks. In an attempt to perhaps encourage him to be a bit more aggressive manager Craig Albernaz has moved Ward from leadoff spot to No. 3 in the lineup.
What would he fetch? Unfortunately, not a lot. He is a left fielder only. His arm and suspect ability to track balls negate any chance he could play right field. Maybe if they scout the interested teams, the Orioles could get a candidate for a revamped 2027 bullpen.
Coby Mayo
This one pains me. Nobody has been more of a Mayo booster than me since I first saw him at Aberdeen in 2022. He hit a monster home run that night. Then when I saw him in 2023 at Bowie he hit two home runs. Each home run was more majestic than the last.
Questions always abounded regarding what position he would play. He started to come along as a first baseman toward the end of 2025, and there was real optimism he had turned the corner as a hitter.
But the club didn’t have enough confidence in Mayo to not sign Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal. Apparently, no other team was that strong of a believer in Mayo, because the Orioles didn’t or couldn’t deal him in the offseason.
Given the club’s bizarre decision to bring Ryan Mountcastle back, Mayo probably would have started 2026 at Norfolk if not for the serious elbow injury to Jordan Westburg.
The questions about Mayo’s ability to hit right-handed pitching and his defense at third base have finally hit a breaking point. With Westburg due to be back for spring training next season, there just isn’t room for Mayo at the inn.
What would he fetch? He’d probably have to be coupled with Ward or a reliever to get anything meaningful. Obviously, those types of trades are better made in the offseason. Mayo may still make something of himself, but it’s not going to happen in an Orioles uniform.
Yennier Cano and Andrew Kittredge
The 2027 bullpen will probably bear little resemblance to the ’26 ‘pen. Cano has more value than Kittredge since he has two years of club control remaining beyond 2026. Kittredge is set to hit free agency in the fall.
What might they fetch? Coupling one of them with either Mayo or Ward would enhance the return. Maybe the Orioles could deal multiple relievers to a team in need of bullpen help.
Trevor Rogers
I never bought into the notion that Rogers would repeat the magical 18-start run he had in 2025, but I also never bought into the idea that he was the guy who had a 6.96 ERA three starts after his return from a bad bout with the flu.
In his last seven starts, spanning 41.2 innings, his ERA is 2.38 and his WHIP a sizzling 1.00. The deadline return would be solid but not spectacular because he is a two-month rental.
Rogers loves being here and working with young catcher Samuel Basallo. If the Orioles deal him, they will just return to the expensive pitching well. At some point, they are going to have to pay for pitching because they have done a poor job juicing the pipeline with big-league-caliber arms.
Rogers is scheduled to hit free agency after the season. Sign him to a three- or four-year extension.
Adley Rutschman
Mike Elias has had a bite at the 1:1 pick twice as the Orioles GM. He passed on high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to take Rutschman, a catcher out of Oregon State. For a time, it looked like he was a genius, as the team ascended from the day Rutschman arrived in the big leagues in 2022.
However, it soon became clear that Witt was the better player, even before Rutschman fell into a mysterious tailspin beginning in late June 2024, which lasted through an injury-plagued 2025.
This year, Rutschman has bounced back enough to make the American League All-Star team for a third time, but the luster is off the player. That doesn’t mean there won’t be significant interest in him if the Orioles decide to deal him. Catchers who can defend and hit are hard to find.
I actually love having Rutschman and Basallo. Most teams struggle to find even one catcher who can hit. However, playing both on most days means the club has carried a third catcher at times. That limits the bench unless the third catcher is someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who can play elsewhere.
The Yankees would love to have Rutschman, but it’s hard to find a big market for catchers at the deadline. Try to sign him to a three- or four-year deal in the $90 million to $100 million range. If you can’t, deal him in the offseason. Rutschman is set to hit free agency after the 2027 season.
Dean Kremer
The Orioles aren’t trading Shane Baz or Kyle Bradish, but teams may call on Kremer, who has one year of club control remaining beyond 2026. He should also have a fresh arm for the stretch run this season since he missed much of the first half with a quad strain.
If Kremer pitches well in his next few times out, a pitching-needy team like the Cubs could give the Orioles a nice package.
But if the Orioles were to hold on to both Kremer and Rogers, that is far less problematic and expensive than if they were to deal one or both and have to hunt for a replacement or two.
Double-A Chesapeake left-hander Joseph Dzierwa is coming along quickly and could be ready by the middle of next season, but Trey Gibson and Cade Povich don’t excite me a great deal.
Suppose the Orioles enter the offseason with Rogers, Bradish, Baz, Kremer and Brandon Young. They’d still need to add a starter, but it may not have to be in the Framber Valdez-Ranger Suárez cost range.
I am not against Kremer being handed a three-year deal worth between $36 million and $40 million. He is battle-tested and an innings-eater when healthy.
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