It’s been just about two months since the end of the 2022 season for the Orioles. I think we can all agree that a 31-game turnaround was a pleasant surprise. For a legitimate shot at the playoffs in 2023, the Orioles need to get to work in the next two to three weeks.
That may sound like I am putting all my chips in the possible acquisitions basket. Let me be clear, I am not saying that all is lost if the club doesn’t move the needle this summer.
It may also sound as if I am splitting very fine hairs here. But again, that’s not what I am doing. It’s very important that the Orioles not move backward in a way that calls for a reset following the 2023 season.
What the Orioles have to be careful about is not being the Detroit Tigers or Kansas City Royals of 2022. There is still room for organic improvement, starting with the continued development of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and more.
But Orioles GM Mike Elias is a good enough talent evaluator to know that he has to move the team forward in a couple important ways. Starting pitching has to take another mighty step forward. And from everything you hear, that is where Elias is spending most of his time.
Nobody in their right mind has been expecting to hear or read any legitimate rumors placing the Orioles in the vicinity of Carlos Rodón, Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom. That’s probably the group Elias was referencing when he told reporters that while he was expecting the Orioles’ payroll to rise in 2023, he was not planning on going from 0 to 60.
So, let’s look at two alternative shopping lanes — the 0-to-45 and 0-to-35 lanes.
That 0-to-45 lane is owned almost exclusively by Chris Bassitt (who will pitch next season at 34), Nathan Eovaldi (33) and Japan’s Kodai Senga (30).
Bassitt is just what the doctor ordered for the improving Orioles. From 2019-2022, he posted a 42-20 record, 3.31 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The only injury of any note was the line drive he took to his head on Aug. 17, 2021. Aside from the time missed from that incident, he has been a workhorse. He figures to remain so for a few more years. Bassitt turned down his end of a $19 million mutual option for 2023 as well as the qualifying offer of $19.65 million. By offering that, the Mets get a second-round draft pick if he signs elsewhere.
Bassitt didn’t turn down $19.65 million guaranteed to settle on a one-year deal at $21 million or two years at $40 million. He very well could command four years and in the range of $80 million to $85 million. While I am sure the Orioles are all over him, I can’t see any way that three years and between $60 million to $65 million gets it done — and that’s if the Orioles are even in that ballpark.
Eovaldi is a freak, but his two prior Tommy John surgeries make him too much of a risk-reward guy for me. He probably could be had on a two-year deal in the range of $36 million to $39 million, but remember, he is attached to a qualifying offer as well. He is just coming off a four-year, $68 million contract in Boston. Don’t get me wrong, if I woke up and he had agreed to become an Oriole, I’d be juiced.
There is no evidence that Senga is a serious consideration for the Orioles or vice versa. Senga is a true free agent, meaning teams do not have to pay a posting fee to sign him. Typically, Japanese pitchers are used to pitching in six-man rotations and have to adjust to a five-man rotation in the States. Senga will probably command a three- or four-year deal in the neighborhood of $20 million per year.
That brings us to the next lane, the 0-to-35 group. These pitchers all have extensive major league track records. These are the guys you hope your analytics folks have done their homework on. It would really be nice if the Orioles could somehow snag two of these 10 if they can’t land any of the three pitchers I mentioned above.
The pitchers in this group are:
Johnny Cueto (will pitch next season at 37)
Zach Eflin (29)
Andrew Heaney (turns 32 in June)
Sean Manaea (31)
José Quintana (34)
Ross Stripling (33)
Noah Syndergaard (30)
Jameson Taillon (31)
Michael Wacha (turns 32 in July)
Taijuan Walker (turns 31 in August)
If you think this is the bargain department of free-agent starting pitchers, think again. Mike Clevinger, who was pretty bad in 2022 and awful in the postseason, got a one-year, $12 million deal from the White Sox. I don’t see the O’s tiptoeing into any three-year deal. But if you give me Quintana, Heaney, Wacha or Cueto, I am all in.
I wrote a speculative piece a couple weeks back and pointed out Lucas Giolito and Jesús Luzardo as the two pitchers I wanted to pinpoint via trades. There is no sign that the White Sox or Marlins are willing to deal those pitchers at this point.
Nor has there been any sign of Orioles interest in a right-handed bat. I suggested longtime Dodger Justin Turner. Most observers believe Turner will end up back in Los Angeles for something less than the $16 million club option the Dodgers declined to pick up.
Update: Zach Eflin reportedly agreed to a three-year deal with the Rays Dec. 1.
See Also:
• Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles On Three Under-The-Radar Possibilities For Orioles
• Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles Sets Up Orioles’ Areas For Improvement: Lineup
• Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles Sets Up Orioles’ Areas For Improvement: Starting Rotation
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox