The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too. I’m guilty of this myself, but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We have reached the midway point of our 12-team mock drafts so let’s do a Standard (non-PPR) draft next using the sixth pick.
See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick, No. 5 pick, No. 6 pick
We’ll mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex draft.
Let’s get started on my latest mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 6: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Round 2, Pick 7: Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 3, Pick 6: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 4, Pick 7: Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
Round 5, Pick 6: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
Round 6, Pick 7: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Round 7, Pick 6: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 8, Pick 7: Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 9, Pick 6: Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Round 10, Pick 7: Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
Round 11, Pick 6: Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 12, Pick 7: Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 13, Pick 6: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Round 14, Pick 7: Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 15, Pick 6: New Orleans D/ST
Round 16, Pick 7: Greg Joseph, K, Minnesota Vikings
Observations:
The biggest difference when adjusting from PPR to Standard scoring is adjusting the running backs accordingly. They come flying off the board quickly, so it’s important to address the position in the earlier rounds. There is more of an emphasis on touchdowns than receptions, so backs who get the carries near the goal line are more valuable. A player like Derrick Henry is ranked much higher in standard leagues than a PPR league.
Another player who skyrockets up the rankings in a Standard league is Nick Chubb. Many feel he’s the best pure running back in the NFL. He just hasn’t offered much in the passing game, and that’s in large part because Kareem Hunt was always a factor. I don’t expect Chubb to suddenly inherit all of Hunt’s touches, but there is no splitting work near the end zone. Chubb is going to get all carries and he’s in play to finish as the top player in fantasy.
Having Davante Adams fall to me in the second round proves that the running backs are valued higher in this format. Adams is being pushed down boards because people fear the quarterback change, but he’s too good a player for that to be a factor. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t a downfield passer like Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr, but he’s incredibly accurate and will get Adams the ball in space. He’s also dominant in the red zone, similar to an upcoming pick.
I was hopeful that Joe Mixon would be there in the third round, but he was taken one spot ahead of me, so Travis Etienne is the guy once again. Etienne rushed for 1,125 yards and added another 316 through the air. There is room for growth here, too, as the job is all his after he split time with James Robinson last season.
Miles Sanders is a running back who has gotten a lot of work on the ground but very little in the passing game. That could change now that he’s in Carolina. Sanders is a capable receiver, hauling in 50 of 63 targets as a rookie in 2019, but his numbers have dipped down to 28, 26 and 20 receptions the past three seasons. You’re getting Sanders in this range because of his rushing prowess, but if he can add an additional 250-300 yards through the air, he’s even more valuable than his current average draft position.
The options at wideout were shocking in the next four rounds, but I also watched a ton of running backs disappear as I hammered the receiver position. DeAndre Hopkins is a player I value more in Standard leagues than PPR because while he’s not in a high-volume pass offense, he’s still one of the best red-zone receivers in the league. I’ve touched on Brandon Aiyuk a couple times this offseason as someone ranked much lower than he should be. Tyler Lockett is disrespected every year and sees enough volume to be a factor in either format. I’m infatuated with Diontae Johnson this season. Landing him in the eighth round in any league setting is a steal.
I address the quarterback and tight end in Rounds 9 and 10, which is typically the area I like to attack both positions. Deshaun Watson is QB9 in my rankings, and then I have a bit of a drop-off behind him. If Watson can get back to the form we saw in Houston, he’s going to be a great addition this late. The same can be said for Darren Waller. The Giants have a bunch of No. 2 and 3 receivers, leaving Waller as the de facto No. 1 option for Daniel Jones. There is the possibility that both finish in the top five at their position. That’s the kind of value I’m targeting at those spots.
The uptick in running back value made the later rounds a bit more difficult to navigate. The options at receiver were plentiful, but I needed more depth at running back in the event of injury. Kenneth Gainwell, Zamir White and Tyjae Spears are players I like taking with my last picks, so it felt like a bit of a reach to grab them in Rounds 11-13, but that’s the cost of doing business in this setting.
Gainwell is shooting up my draft board. All the talk this offseason has been around Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift, but Gainwell sits atop the depth chart in Philadelphia. He was held out of the preseason opener while the others played. White saw the bulk of the action with the Raiders’ first team as Josh Jacobs continues to hold out. Spears was one of my favorite draft prospects and should still get some action in the pass game while backing up Derrick Henry. Spears is one of my favorite late-round handcuffs.
I don’t normally go with two tight ends in a draft, but I am a big fan of Gerald Everett this season. He’s the late-round target I’m coveting if I’m targeting a tight end in the last rounds. Kellen Moore loves getting his tight ends involved in the action. Everett is more athletic than he is given credit for, too. I like him as a back-end TE1, and that’s the kind of upside we are shooting for at tight end.
Like I noted above, the running backs are gone in a hurry. Even with three of my top four picks being backs, the well dried up quickly for depth at the position. I’m a firm believer in letting players fall to you, hence why I had no problem taking four receivers in a row, but this exercise also shows that we need to address the backs early. If I was to have taken a quarterback or tight end any earlier, the depth there would be even worse.
With that said, I like the potential of this team. I’m very satisfied with my first 10 picks, but it gets a little dicey. If something were to happen to one of my top running backs, I have five starting receivers to offer in a potential trade. Injuries are bound to happen, so there will be a running back no one is talking about currently who will be fantasy relevant come midseason. That’s why the season doesn’t end with the draft. There is still work to be done via the waiver wire or by trade.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox