Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 15.
Notes:
• Depending on your league, Week 15 is either the final week of the regular season or the first week of playoffs for fantasy owners. The strategy changes when you get to this stage of the season. If you have three or four strong wide receivers, there is no need to roster that end-of-bench receiver. Grab as many handcuffs as possible. The top two running backs in Week 14 were Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo. Neither was a starter a week ago. I’d rather roster players like this over Keon Coleman or Xavier Legette. If you do not plan on starting those receivers, there is no point in rostering them.
• I had to do a double take when I saw the schedule for this week. Because everyone is a huge fan of it — NOT — it is another week with two games on Monday night. Why this is a thing at this point of the season is beyond me. Get ready for a crazy couple of weeks with the schedule. Next week is the start of Saturday games. Then we have football on Christmas Day, which is a Wednesday. Make sure you are keeping tabs on the schedule when making roster decisions.
• Matchups do matter this time of the year. The Steelers draw the Eagles this week, so I am downgrading George Pickens, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The Chargers play a weak Buccaneers defense, so Gus Edwards and Quentin Johnston move up in my rankings. Injury concerns aside, do not be afraid to sit Pickens for Johnston. With that said, do not bench your studs going against better defenses. The Titans are the top pass defense in the NFL, but I am still trusting Tee Higgins over Johnston. Jonathan Taylor is still a must- start in a matchup against the Broncos’ stout run defense.
• Teams with the best matchups in the fantasy playoffs are the Cardinals, Lions, Packers and Titans. The Bears, Seahawks and Colts have some of the toughest schedules the next few weeks. Kyler Murray, James Conner and Trey McBride owners have every reason to be excited in the fantasy playoffs. If you are a D’Andre Swift or DJ Moore owner, you should be a bit nervous about the schedule ahead.
• Pay attention to the weather. Fantasy owners often overlook it at this time of the year and it costs them. You do not want to start the kicker playing in windy conditions. Few passes were thrown in a snow game between the 49ers and Bills. The kickers in that game struggled. When every point matters, keep the conditions in mind.
• There were a lot of big performances this weekend, but none bigger than Josh Allen’s 51.88 fantasy points. It was the most points scored by any quarterback in the history of the NFL, thanks to three passing touchdowns and another three scores on the ground. The Bills could not get the win against the Rams, but Allen was a league winner in a week when many players were on a bye. Congrats if he single-handedly got you into the playoffs this weekend.
Thursday Night Game: Rams vs. 49ers
Sunday Night Game: Packers vs. Seahawks
Monday Night Games: Bears vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Raiders
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
Running Back: Rico Dowdle
Wide Receiver: Jameson Williams
Tight End: Zach Ertz
Defense: Commanders
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Russell Wilson
Running Back: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman Jr.
Tight End: Cole Kmet
Defense: Lions
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Bryce Young
Running Back: Sincere McCormick
Wide Receiver: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tight End: Grant Calcaterra
Defense: Cowboys
NFL Picks for Week 15
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 136-72)
49ers (vs. Rams)
Commanders (vs. Saints)
Texans (vs. Dolphins)
Jets (vs. Jaguars)
Bengals (vs. Titans)
Ravens (vs. Giants)
Chiefs (vs. Browns)
Panthers (vs. Cowboys)
Eagles (vs. Steelers)
Lions (vs. Bills)
Broncos (vs. Colts)
Chargers (vs. Buccaneers)
Cardinals (vs. Patriots)
Packers (vs. Seahawks)
Vikings (vs. Bears)
Falcons (vs. Raiders)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 37-33)
Bengals -4.5 vs. Titans
Panthers -1 vs. Cowboys
Lions -1.5 vs. Bills
Chargers -3 vs. Buccaneers
Raiders +4.5 vs. Falcons
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 36-32-2)
Dolphins-Texans over 47.5
Steelers-Eagles under 42.5
Ravens-Giants under 43.5
Patriots-Cardinals under 46
Packers-Seahawks over 46.5
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-five fantasy QB against the Buccaneers. (Off to a good start!)
Week 2: Greg Dortch finishes as a top-25 wide receiver against the Rams. (WR89 — yikes!)
Week 3: Derek Carr makes it three straight weeks as a top-five fantasy QB against the Eagles. (Major miss)
Week 4: Malik Nabers remains WR1 after scoring two touchdowns against division rival Dallas Cowboys. (Still WR1, but no TDs)
Week 5: A running back will finish with more than 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time this season. (Not even close)
Week 6: A tight end — a position that has been AWFUL to this point — leads all position players in scoring this week. (Close! Cole Kmet finished No. 6)
Week 7: The four rookie QBs — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix — combine for more fantasy points than the top four quarterbacks drafted this summer — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. (Miss)
Week 8: Courtland Sutton finishes as a WR2 or better after failing to earn a single target last week. (JUST missed. WR25!)
Week 9: Tight ends keep rolling, with four tight ends scoring 20-plus points. (Tight end struggles continue)
Week 10: A receiver, back or tight end will account for more than 200 yards of offense. (Ja’Marr Chase did it on Thursday night)
Week 11: The running backs finish with more touchdowns than the quarterbacks in the Chiefs-Bills matchup. (Miss)
Week 12: The Eagles’ defense holds both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to under 100 receiving yards. (Miss)
Week 13: Six rushing touchdowns are scored between Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in the showdown between the Eagles and Ravens. (Miss)
Week 14: Caleb Williams finishes as a top-five QB against the 49ers. (Miss)
Week 15: Sincere McCormick finishes as a RB2 or better against the Falcons.
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