The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too. I’m guilty of this myself, but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We have reached the back half of our 12-team mock drafts, which is my preferred area to pick in. See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick, No. 5 pick, No. 6 pick, Superflex, Standard
Let’s get started on my latest mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 7: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Round 2, Pick 6: Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 3, Pick 7: DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 4, Pick 6: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Round 5, Pick 7: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
Round 6, Pick 6: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Round 7, Pick 7: Dalvin Cook, RB, New York Jets
Round 8, Pick 6: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Round 9, Pick 7: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Round 10, Pick 6: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 11, Pick 7: Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 12, Pick 6: Jeff Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins
Round 13, Pick 7: Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Round 14, Pick 6: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Round 15, Pick 7: Baltimore Ravens D/ST
Round 16, Pick 6: Jason Sanders, K, Miami Dolphins
Observations:
The plan wasn’t to go Zero RB, but once I got to the third round and all the top running backs were already off the board, I fully committed to it. I took pass-catchers with my first six picks before hammering down at running back to finish the draft.
I’ve been making changes to my rankings the last few days, and one of the players who has risen up my board is Tyreek Hill. Hill is a home-run threat each play, and any doubt that Tua Tagovailoa — more on him shortly — didn’t have the arm strength to take advantage of Hill’s epic speed was put to rest last year. He saw 30 percent of his team’s targets, and he led the NFL in deep targets. He’s moved into the top five in my rankings. This could be the year he’s the top scorer in fantasy.
Davante Adams’ average draft position has been dropping a few spots in recent weeks and I’m happy to benefit in the second round. Everyone is focused on the change at quarterback, but the truth is Jimmy Garoppolo is a winner. Adams had the second-most targets in the league in 2022 and is now in his second year in Josh McDaniels’ offense. Exiting the first two rounds with Hill and Adams is exciting.
There are a handful of running backs I’m targeting in the third round, but unfortunately for me, they were all gone by my pick. This is when I embraced going Zero RB instead of reaching at the position. A.J. Brown was the big acquisition and garnered much of the attention around the league, but it was DeVonta Smith who led the Eagles in receptions with 95 and finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Philadelphia overhauled the running game, but the passing game remains the same. Expect Smith to have another terrific season.
It’s hard for me to draft Travis Kelce in the first or even Mark Andrews in the first three rounds. I like the values at receiver and running back in those rounds. T.J. Hockenson is my TE2 this year, as he’s the one tight end I’m willing to take in the first five rounds. Hockenson always had the talent, but the opportunities were not there. Once he was traded from Detroit to Minnesota, his production took off, including a 10-catch performance in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Giants. The aforementioned tight ends are the only others getting double-digit targets and Hockenson could finish with his first 1,000-yard season.
I would have liked to have addressed the running back position in the fifth and sixth rounds, but again, the value wasn’t there. I was not reaching just to fill the positions. It also didn’t help that two of my favorite targets in this range were available. I’ve made it no secret that I’ve fallen into a potential trap in favoring the Broncos’ passing game once again. Injuries have prevented Jerry Jeudy from living up to his post-draft hype, but Sean Payton should revitalize the offense. Drake London fits the mold of a second-year player who is set to break out. We saw glimpses of it from Weeks 13-18 when he was WR20 without finding the end zone. The Falcons have young, explosive playmakers and London could be the best of them all.
This team now has five elite receivers and one of the game’s best tight ends. There is a possibility my last two picks never start a game other than for bye weeks or potential injury. I, personally, like having five receivers and then rostering as many running backs as possible, hoping to find this year’s late-round darling. Seven of my final eight picks were running backs, including a couple players who are either in committees or the handcuff to one the game’s elite backs.
Dalvin Cook was just signed off the free-agent market, and even though he’s in a backfield with Breece Hall, his current average draft position is a bit shocking to me. Cook has been one of the game’s best, finishing as RB8 last year and with three 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his resume. He’s the presumed starter for the first few weeks. I’ve drafted Antonio Gibson often, as I like his pass-catching ability in the Commanders’ new offense.
Going Zero RB wasn’t the only strategy I committed to in the draft. This particular mock saw running backs and quarterbacks come off the board in bunches early. Once I noticed that trend, I told myself to wait at quarterback and hope to stack Tua Tagovailoa with Tyreek Hill. My plan worked, as the ninth and tenth rounds are the area I target a QB with upside. Sure, there are concerns about concussions after a couple of scary scenes last season, but Tagovailoa also led the position in passer rating (105.5) and yards per attempt (8.9). There is risk, but worst-case scenario, Tagovailoa isn’t the same player and I stream the position until I find a better fit.
The next five picks are all running backs who may not contribute immediately but are what I like to call “lottery tickets” if they become their team’s starting running back. Jerick McKinnon, Kenneth Gainwell and Jeff Wilson are FLEX-worthy plays as a part of a committee, but are an injury away from being a solid RB2. Jerome Ford and Tyjae Spears are a couple of younger backs who back up two of the game’s elite. Still, they should find roles in the passing game since both players ahead of them aren’t known for their receiving skills.
I cannot stress enough how important it is to have an open mind when entering a draft. When I made the Hill selection, it wasn’t pre-planned to address pass-catchers with the next five picks. That’s how the board played out. This team is loaded at receiver, but having Antonio Gibson as my RB2 has me a little wheezy. And once Breece Hall is back up and running, Cook’s play will diminish as well. I could always package a couple receivers for a better cast of running backs, but I’d ride this team out for a couple weeks to see how things play out before making rash decisions at RB.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox