The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too. I’m guilty of this myself, but I will try to go with different approaches in many of these mock drafts.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We have reached the midway point of our 12-team mock drafts, so let’s do a Superflex draft next using the sixth pick.
See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick, No. 5 pick, No. 6 pick
This mock draft will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, Superflex (any player), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league.
My Standard league mock draft was released earlier this week, and we’ll mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point.
Let’s get started on my latest mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 6: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Round 2, Pick 7: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 3, Pick 6: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Round 4, Pick 7: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 5, Pick 6: Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 6, Pick 7: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 7, Pick 6: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 8, Pick 7: Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 9, Pick 6: Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
Round 10, Pick 7: AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Round 11, Pick 6: Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints
Round 12, Pick 7: Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
Round 13, Pick 6: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 14, Pick 7: Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 15, Pick 6: New York Jets D/ST
Round 16, Pick 7: Jason Sanders, K, Miami Dolphins
Observations:
The biggest difference when adjusting to a Superflex league is the emphasis on quarterbacks. Not only do you have the one must-start QB, but most fantasy players will deploy a QB in the Superflex spot. The quarterbacks come flying off the board quickly so it’s important to address the position in the early rounds.
The top three quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen), Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey came off the board with the first five picks. It wasn’t necessarily a hard decision, but it did pain me a little to pass on Austin Ekeler and Ja’Marr Chase. They are going to be some of the top players in football this season. Both have a legitimate chance at being the top player in fantasy.
I have Lamar Jackson higher than Allen in my rankings, so it was a no-brainer to make him my top choice. The buzz around the Ravens is at an all-time high with the skill position players around the former MVP. There is little chance that one of my top eight quarterbacks would be available in the second round, and I like Jackson’s upside over the quarterbacks I have ranked behind him. Just like I said Ekeler and Chase could be the top player in the game this year, we’ve seen Jackson already do that once and he can do it again.
My guess was correct as Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence all were selected in the first 13 picks, including the 12-spot doubling down at the position with Fields and Lawrence with back-to-back picks. As the famous line from the movie “Dodgeball” goes, “It’s a bold strategy, Cotton.”
The rise in quarterbacks equals a fall in players we normally see selected in the first round, so seeing Bijan Robinson available to me with the 19th pick was another easy decision. He’s eighth overall in my rankings, as most expect the rookie running back to instantly become one of the best players in football. He’s on a team that runs the ball more than any other in the league and he’s a terrific pass-catcher as well. The sky is the limit for the Falcons this season with Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts on offense.
Chris Olave is one of my favorite receiver targets, as he’s one of many players due for positive touchdown regression. Olave finished with more than 1,000 yards receiving but found the end zone just four times in his rookie campaign. He gets an upgrade at quarterback with Derek Carr throwing him passes a year after seeing 26.7 percent of the targets with the Saints. Olave is going to be your classic case of a second-year wideout having a breakout season.
I’ve been drafting Joe Mixon as my RB2 often and it’s still shocking his ADP (average draft position) is so low. He is one of the most consistent players at the position and averaged 19.5 touches per game last season, including an increase in targets. There are few bell cows in the league, and Mixon has little competition behind him. If he keeps going in this range, I’ll keep scooping him up and reap the benefits once the season begins.
Calvin Ridley is someone I’m willing to gamble on (pun intended) being the elite player we saw a couple years ago. Reports from Jacksonville say he’s been nearly impossible to cover in training camp, and I think Ridley has a chip on his shoulder after being the face of recent NFL betting scandals. He’s got a couple teammates who will also be vying for targets, including Christian Kirk, who was remarkable in his first season with the Jags. Trevor Lawrence will take Ridley’s game to the next level and be able to support multiple fantasy relevant receivers.
Here I was thinking I had another round or so before the next wave of quarterbacks started coming off the board. Nope. A run of quarterbacks (seven!!) started with the pick after Ridley that left me a bit stunned. I hate being at the end of a run like this, but I felt compelled to get someone for my Superflex spot. With that said, Kenny Pickett is a quarterback I like heading into the new league year. He showed signs of improvement in the second half of last season and he does have an impressive set of skill position players around him. Pickett is also underrated as a runner. I would have preferred Carr or Jordan Love, who went with the two prior picks, but I’m not mad with the former first-round pick here.
Every year we see Tyler Lockett disrespected in pre-draft rankings, and every year he outperforms those projections. He’s got another player to deal with in the competition for targets, but he will finish as one of the best players in fantasy and we’ll once again be questioning why he’s ranked so low.
Similar to Lockett in Seattle, Mike Williams seems to be the forgotten man with the Chargers after the selection of a first-round receiver. The issue with Williams has always been availability, but when he’s on the field, there is no denying the talent. The Chargers are going to be a matchup nightmare for many teams, and I’m in the camp of Herbert as one of the favorites to win MVP. I like Williams’ potential with less spotlight on him.
The ninth round is the range I like to start thinking about a tight end. I have Darren Waller lower than most “fantasy experts,” but getting him at this range is a value pick. Waller is the best pass-catcher on a Giants roster full of question marks. Injury has been a concern for him in recent years, but he’s still one of the best in the game at a position where few are reliable on a weekly basis.
It wasn’t intentional to draft running backs with four of the final five picks, but that’s how the board played out. AJ Dillon will have a significant role as the Packers ease Love into his starting position. Jamaal Williams will be the Saints’ lead back while Alvin Kamara serves his three-game suspension. Tyler Allgeier is being undervalued because of Bijan Robinson being drafted so high. Allgeier ran for more than a thousand yards last season and he’s not just going to be shelved because of Robinson’s arrival. Kenny Gainwell, my last pick, has upside if he’s truly the No. 1 back for the Eagles.
Sandwiched in between those running backs was the selection of Sam Howell in the 12th round. Having a third quarterback is vital in Superflex leagues, but as you can see, the options are plentiful as the draft progresses. Howell is another second-year quarterback who has a lot of playmakers around him, and similar to Pickett, he’s more mobile than given credit for. The pieces are there for Howell to be a solid QB2.
I love getting Lamar Jackson in Superflex leagues, and I am an even bigger fan of the skill position players I acquired in this draft. What I did learn in this mock is to be ahead of the curve when in range for my QB2. I would have lost out on Ridley as my WR2, but Lockett and Williams are solid plays at that spot. I like Kenny Pickett this season, but Derek Carr, Jordan Love and even Russell Wilson are quarterbacks I’d rather have in my Superflex spot. As I’ve stated throughout these mock drafts, the reason for these mocks is to have that knowledge when it counts comes to draft day.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox